STIXi, the alternative index for Indian Stock market completes 100 Trading days

Dear readers,

You will be glad to know that STIXi has completed 100 trading days on 25-AUG-2008 since its inception on 01-APR-2008.



As of 25-AUG-2008, over the past 100 trading days, STIXi has returned -8.58% bettered only by SENSEX -7.53%, BSE100 -8.24%, BSE200 -8.44% and NIFTY -8.53%. A commendable performance indeed. For most past, STIXi has been out-performing most if not all indices of the Indian Stock Market.



On quite a few occasions, on the technical front STIXi has given trend-change signals ahead of or in consistent with the front-line indices. STIXi has been clearly without wild swings or bouts of volatility and appears to be balanced, in line with initial expectations. However the Alpha generation that was expected has not happened consistently, especially when the market is on a downward move. May be the composition of STIXi requires a review as well as a relook on weightage is warranted. We shall wait till 6 calendar months and revise the composition as needed.



At the moment, over the past 15 days when the trading volumes have shrunk and the overall market going nowhere, STIXi also has been listless, indicating a narrow trading band for the market that is waiting for some trigger. In my opinion it is likely to remain without huge swings on either side, over the next 9 months at the least, as indicated in the previous post.



Daily data of STIXi for the period 01-APR-2008 to 25-AUG-2008 is available here
If you have a technical analysis software, I would like to request you to upload the data from the above excel file and help me confirm whether the indicators calculated by me are correct.



Daily STIXi technical indicators for the 100 trading days (01-APR-2008 to 25-AUG-2008) using my own Excel based formulas are available here

I would sincerely welcome your comments, feedback and analysis of the performance of STIXi and its soundness of STIXi's construction.

Cheers and safe trading

Market review 27th July 2008 - after a forced break

Well, Blogger's heuristics and/or fuzzy logic thought this blog is a SPAM and the blog got locked out for the past 3 weeks. After two follow-ups, a manual review seems to have been undertaken and the blog has finally been unlocked. Must thank God for small mercies, the Google / Blogger staff for the huge mercy. I sincerely hope the logic would have been fixed by the Blogger team.

Coming to the Indian Stock Market, a lot has happened in the past 3 weeks since the last post, with a strong bullish phase, as indicated in the last phase followed by corrections. STIXi on its part has been performing admirably well. There was a phase during the upmove, STIXi was distinctly underperforming most of the front-line indices. Not any more, as evident in this chart.



On the weekly charts of STIXi, the trend is still positive, with both Stochastics(14,3) as well as Stochastics (5,3) remaining in positive zone.

However on the daily charts, some of the technical indicators are showing or about to show negative bias. The trend for the early part of the week is likely to be negative. Expect a flat-to-positive close for the week. Trend likely to remain range-bound with negative bias for the near to medium term.

Cheers and safe trading

STIXi technicals as of 04-JUL-2008

As of week-ending 04-JUL-2008, the weekly stochastics(5,3) of STIXi has given a Buy though the Moving average crossover has not happened yet on weekly basis. On the daily charts, we of the technical indicators have given a Buy, as evident in the attached chart. Expect the market to open positive and remain in the positive territory for the first 2-3 days of the coming week.

It is likely that we may see bounce-back upto 920.42 (STIXi 20D EMA). The 50% retracement of the fall from recent high of 1017.61 (on 17-JUN-08) to the recent low of 817.32 (made on 01-JUL-2008) will give STIXi an upside target of 917.47.

Cheers and safe trading.

Nifty Daily Technicals - end of 04-JUL-2008

Hello,
On 4th Jul 2008, though the Nifty closed just below its 5Day EMA, as can be seen in the attached chart some of the technical indicators on the daily charts have shown a BUY trigger.
Stochastics (14,3) and Stochastics (5,3) have shown an 'Buy' crossover. 12 Period ROC is showing an uptick, though still within negative territory. MACD is showing a small positive divergence, though still in strongly negative territory and no signal crossover has happened yet. RSI(14) is at 31.94.

So Monday's (7th July) opening is likely to be positive. The 'very' short term trend may remain positive and one may expect the Nifty to target its 20Day EMA, currently at 4288 or 4302. Resistance likely around 4100 & 4158 levels.

Further the downward sloping triangle formation appears to have (nearly) completed with its recent low at 3896.75 on 1/7/08. If true, there is a possibility of Nifty aiming for 4880, with strong resistances at 4572 (50Day EMA)/ 4761 (89D EMA).

Cheers and safe trading

STIXi, (Stox Indicus) Index for the Indian Stock Market completes 3 months

Hello,

I was away travelling, catching up with some long-lost friends, going back in time by some 20-23 years, on a quickly assembled Alumni meet. So, there was a break in publishing my posts.

Anyway, in a market hell-bent on travelling in a single direction, I don't think indices or charts would make much of a difference.

The STIXi values for the period 18-JUN-2008 to 30th June 2008 are available here --> Stox Indicus : STIXi values for 18-JUN-2008 to 30-JUN-2008

While I was away, on 30th June 2008, STIXi has completed 3 months of existence.

Over the past 3 months, STIXi has performed admirably well - Pat on my own back :-) as evident from this chart:

As of date, only SENSEX has managed to beat STIXi - that too very very marginally, and that too only during this current vicious fall.

During yesterday's fall, STIXi broke below its channel formation it had maintained for the past 7 weeks (since 13th May 2008).

Market Review

On 27th Jun 2008, Sensex had closed below its 144 Week EMA, as anticipated in an earlier post. Also, yesterday's Sensex close ended up retracing 38.2% of the upmove from the lows of APRIL-2003 (Yes! whole of 5 years+).

These only indicate worse times to come. The recovery is likely to be a long-drawn out process, going by the new-lows being made everyday. Any recovery is complicated by domestic political scenario, Oil Prices, Inflation, global tensions, FII liquidations etc. Sensex on the downside may find some support at 13220, 12627 or 11553 levels.

However there might be a technical pullback over the short term, because the market is oversold, but other than the 14Day RSI of STIXi (now at 22.56), the short-term buy trigger / trend-reversal are not yet visible on the charts of STIXi or any other front-line indices.

Brave-hearts and believers in long-term story of Indian growth trajectory would do well to start cherry-picking. You may keep the following in mind, when you do start buying:

• Buy a story you are convinced about
• Buy in small lots
• Most importantly do your homework on the scrip before you buy it.
• If your horizon is short term, stay away from the markets for some time.
• AVOID dabbling in penny stocks
• Do not buy on rumors.
• Take a diversified portfolio kind of approach, with some overweight on Pharma & FMCG for the near term.
• Remember to spread your investments over next 9-18 months. No one can catch the bottom-est of bottoms. So averaging over period during a bearish phase would help.
• If you are view is long-term, do not look at your returns on a daily basis.

Cheers

STIXi values for 16-JUN-2008 and 17-JUN-2008

• Date Open High Low Close
• 16/06/2008 1003.54 1031.95 982.68 999.37
• 17/06/2008 1001.23 1031.42 987.5 1017.61

Returns Since 01-APR-2008 (as of 17-JUN-2008)

• STIXi : 1.76%
• Nifty : -1.83%
• SENSEX : 0.45%
• CNX500 : -1.67%
• CNX100 : -1.82%
• Midcap50 : 1.46%
• CNX Midcap : 1.08%
• Nifty Junior : -1.80%

STIXi Technicals as of 17-JUN-2008

• STIXi has closed above 13Day EMA now at 1014.02.
• 20 Day EMA : 1027.98
• 21 Day EMA : 1029.46
• 26 Day EMA : 1035.03
• 34 Day EMA : 1040.16
• 50 Day EMA : 1059.1
• RSI (14) is @ 44.3945
• ROC (12) is @ -2.87479
• Williams%R (14) is @ -54.47

While no bullish moving average cross-over has happened, the stochastics (14,3) as well as (5,3) have not given a SELL yet for the current move.

The upmove has not been accompanied by STIXi volumes & turnover, which have been dipping strongly over the past 4 sessions. Profit booking appears to be taking place across the board, as nearly 50% of NSE EQ volume yesterday was outside of STIXi universe of 150 stocks, which was hovering around 63% till 4 days ago.

Cheers

Sensex Weekly Chart - Week starting 30DEC2002 upto Week ending 13JUN2008

As evident from this chart, the Sensex has closed below the 89Week EMA for the second time in the recent past and the 20W SMA as well as 21W EMA have closed below 34W EMA, which has not happened in the last 6 years or so.

So unless, we break above 15500 mark convincingly and close above 16480, we are headed for really tough times downwards, with an intial stop coming at 13890 levels.

In the first chart above, the 20W SMA when looked at alone is showing ominous signs of a H&S formation that is gathering momentum, with the shoulder-line at around 13700 levels, which is slightly below the current 144W EMA @ 14890. If this H&S comes to fruition, it is going to be blood-bath on the market and time-wise the bearish sentiment may continue for

Caution adviced. Cut your speculative positions. Weed out penny stocks from your portfolio. And take home your profits, if you are sitting on any still.

Cheers

STIXi Technicals as of 13JUN2008

STIXi continues to stay below all EMAs



And both Stochastics (14,3) and (5,3) have been indicating 'buy' for past 3 days.
And the 12-Period ROC is showing an uptick but still in negative territory, indicating bearish sentiment, and MACD is showing a divergence on the upside for past few days, but bullish signal line cross-over has not happened yet.

STIXi RSI(14) has made a higher-low and appearing to signal a 'Buy' in the short term while the Williams%R (14) is also indicating a Buy, but has not crossed over mid-mark.

However the mild BUY triggers have not been accompanied by a surge in STIXi volumes, though STIXi's share of volume and turnover in NSE EQ have been consistently moving up indicating action being restricted to select scrips of the entire universe.

While the next 1-2 days may be positive for the market, the medium term trend stays negative.

Cheers

STIXi has completed 50 Trading Days :-)

Know ye all,

As of 13-JUN-2008, STIXi has completed 50 trading days and over this period since 1st April 2008, it has performed exceptionally well in comparison to all the indices (other than Sectoral) in Indian Market - both across NSE as well as BSE, as evident from this chart.

Let us hear it for STIXi.

Cheers

STIXi values for 13-JUN-2008 & for the period (04-JUN-2008 to 12-JUN-2008)

STIXi values for 13-JUN-2008

• Open : 992.54
• High : 1015.65
• Low : 967.47
• Close : 987.55

STIXi Values for the period 04-JUN-2008 to 12-JUN-2008

• Date Open High Low Close
• 04/06/2008 1040.57 1058.51 991.61 1006.22
• 05/06/2008 1006.75 1037.94 976.27 1016.82
• 06/06/2008 1029.49 1047.68 994.2 1007.46
• 09/06/2008 975.94 1005.88 937.49 978.57
• 10/06/2008 974.08 1000.42 940.59 968.39
• 11/06/2008 980.92 1009.44 960.9 985.6
• 12/06/2008 967.98 1004.27 941.74 988.29

Returns since 01-APR-2008

• STIXi : -1.25%
• Nifty : -4.69%
• Sensex : -2.80%
• CNX500 : -4.78%
• CNX100 : -4.90%

STIXi Technicals :

• 5D EMA : 989.83
• 8D EMA : 999.06
• 9D EMA : 1002.53
• 12D EMA : 1012.65
• 13D EMA : 1015.76
• 20D EMA : 1032.19
• 21D EMA : 1033.78
• 26D EMA : 1039.39
• 34D EMA : 1044.08
• 50D EMA : 1063.30
• RSI (14) : 33.79
• ROC (12) : -7.89
• Stoch(14,3) : 28.55, 26.76
• Stoch(5,3) : 64.05, 51.27
• MACD(12,26,9) : -26.74, -17.14, -9.60
• Williams%R (14) : -71.55

Volumes & Turnover

Volume and turnover were down 10% & 12.97% over previous day respectively AND down by 3.24% and 13.64% compared to 5day averages. STIXi's share of NSE EQ universe was also down for the day by about 2.9% and 0.58% and are at 54.69% and 68.51%.

Cheers

STIXi values for 03-JUN-2008 and market review

Open : 1031.6
High : 1058.85
Low : 1001.16
Close : 1037.53

Returns since 01-APR-2008

STIXi : 3.75%
Nifty : -0.50%
Sensex : 2.15%
CNX500 : 0.37%
CNX100 : -0.43%

STIXi Technicals :

5D EMA : 1059.15
8D EMA : 1069.43
9D EMA : 1072.12
12D EMA : 1078.26
20D EMA : 1083.53
21D EMA : 1083.33
26D EMA : 1080.75
34D EMA : 1075.90
RSI (14) : 36.51
ROC (12) : -8.42
Stoch(14,3) : 23.35, 21.07
Stoch(5,3) : 32.39, 31.83
MACD(12,26,9) : -2.48, 9.63, -12.11

Volumes & Turnover

Volume and turnover were up 16.73% & 11.43% over previous day respectively, but still down by about 5% each compared to 5day averages. STIXi's share of NSE EQ universe has gone up for the day by about 1.5% and 1% and are at 56.49% and 68.85%.

It was one of those days when STIXi had fallen more than the other indices. Volume and turnover statistics indicate the bearish action is shifting to front-line / quality stocks.

MACD has crossed the zero-line and gone into the negative zone. Stochastics (14,3) and stoch(5,3) both have given a buy-trigger. However other indicators continuing to show negative bias and with STIXi well below the moving averages, pull-back if any, may be due to petrol-price hikes, is likely to be capped at 1077.70 or at the 20D EMA @ 1083.53.

Cheers

STIXi values for 02-JUN-2008

• Open : 1083.58
• High : 1102.55
• Low : 1033.27
• Close : 1047.73

Returns since 01-APR-2008

• STIXi : 4.77%
• Nifty : 0.00%
• Sensex : 2.79%
• CNX500 : 0.95%
• CNX100 : 0.08%
• NiftyJunior : 0.57%
• NiftyMidcap50 : 6.36%
• CNX Midcap : 3.59%
• BSE500 : 2.83%
• BSE200 : 3.16%
• BSE100 : 3.19%
• BSE Midcap : 2.96%
• BSE Smallcap : 1.24%

STIXi Technicals for 02-JUN-2008

• 5Day EMA : 1069.96
• 9Day EMA : 1080.76
• 12Day EMA : 1085.67
• 20Day EMA : 1088.37
• 21Day EMA : 1087.91
• 26Day EMA : 1084.21
• 34Day EMA : 1078.23
• RSI(14) : 38.84
• ROC(12) : -6.38
• Stochastics (14,3) : %K14 = 11.7 %D3 = 21.16
• Stochastics (5,3) : %K5 = 18.03 %D3 = 29.3
• MACD (12,26,9) : MACD = 1.47 Signal = 12.66 Histogram = -11.19

STIXi volume & turnover for 02-JUN-2008

• Volume for the day : 26 Crore shares (-14.64% over previous day)
• Turnover for the day : 8023.08 Crores (-19.62% over previous day)
• Volume share of NSE EQ universe : 55.01%
• Turnover share of NSE EQ universe : 67.98%
• Day's Volume relative to 5Day SMA : -16.92%
• Day's turnover relative to 5Day SMA : -14.12%

Cheers

STIXi technicals - since 01-APR-2008

STIXi Moving averages have crossed over, on the down-side...

The 14Day RSI for STIXi is below 50...but still not in the buy-zone

The 14Day ROC for STIXi is still negative territory...

While STIXi stochastics (5,3) still has not reversed downwards into a SELL signal...

May-be, just may be, the STIXi stochastics (14,3) has given a buy...may be a false signal...

It is too early in STIXi's life to use this MACD as an indicator...But what the heck...

Cheers

STIXi relative performance v/s all other indices since 01-APR-08

One picture is equal to 1000 words...! So they say...

Interesting to note that while all the other indices had made lower highs and lower bottoms during May-08, the broad based STIXi made a double-top! Clear sign of bearish times to come.

Cheers

Sundar

Relative performance of various indices in MAY-08

Returns of indices for the month of MAY-08

• STIXi -4.36%
• NIFTY -5.73%
• Sensex -5.06%
• CNX 500 -6.22%
• CNX 100 -6.39%
• Nifty Junior -10.35%
• CNX Midcap -6.31%
• Nifty Midcap50 -5.38%
• BSE 500 -5.96%
• BSE 200 -5.53%
• BSE 100 -5.51%
• BSE Midcap -5.30%
• BSE Smallcap -7.30%

Cheers

STIXi values of 29-MAY-2008 and 30-MAY-2008

Date Open High Low Close Returns Since 01-APR-2008

• 29-MAY-08 1090.72 1113.45 1054.28 1072.17 7.21%
• 30-MAY-08 1081.75 1107.03 1052.24 1077.2 7.72%

Review for 30-MAY-08

• STIXi fell 0.47% over previous close.
• STIXi volume and turnover constituted 55.16% & 66.88% of NSE EQ Universe for the day.
• STIXi volume was down 1.16% over 5D average.
• STIXi turnover was up 10.5% over 5D average.

STIXi Technicals for 30-MAY-2008

• 5D EMA : 1081.08
• 9D EMA : 1089.02
• 12D EMA : 1092.57
• 20D EMA : 1092.64
• 26D EMA : 1087.12
• RSI (14) : 46.44
• ROC(14) : -2.11

Cheers

STIXi values for 27-05-2008 and 28-05-2008

Date Open High Low Close Returns since 01-APR-2008

27/05/2008 1084.82 1106.01 1052.77 1066.76 6.67%

28/05/2008 1071.06 1100.56 1047.46 1082.22 8.22%

With F&O expiry happening today, and technical cues being mildly positive, for the day expect a NIFTY close at around 5007 where 20 / 21 / 26 / 34 Day EMAs are present or around 5021-5028 where 50 / 55 / 200 EMAs are clustered.

Cheers

STIXi values for 26-MAY-2008

• Open : 1091.87
• High : 1108.5
• Low : 1057.28
• Close: 1075.34

Returns since 01-APR-2008 :

• STIXi : 7.53%
• Nifty : 2.86%
• CNX500: 3.80%
• CNX100: 3.07%
• SENSEX: 4.62%

STIXi RSI is @ 44.63 (dropping below 50 for the first time since mid APR-08) and ROC(14) is @ -3.93. Small uptick seen in %K in Stochastics (5,3).

STIXi decisively closed below 26EMA, which is @ 1091.57.

iiiii volumes are abysmally low and fell sharply by over 20% over 5day average. But its share of NSE EQ Universe of stocks remains nearly static, both in terms of volume as well as turnover.
Cheers

STIXi values for 22-05-2008 & 23-05-2008

Date Open High Low Close ReturnsSince01-APR-2008
22/05/2008 1131.41 1152.99 1103.71 1123.04 12.30%
23/i05/2008 1127.05 1147.07 1092.75 1103.95 10.39%

Markets extremely weak with latest close below 20Day EMA. RSI @ 53.57 and ROC @ -2.0

Cheers

STIXi values for 21-MAY-2008

Open : 1119.2
High : 1156.33
Low : 1102.22
Close: 1139.5
Prev.Close : 1130.29

Returns since 01-APR-2008

STIXi : 13.95%
NIFTY : 7.98%
CNX500: 9.36%
CNX100: 8.62%
SENSEX: 10.34%

STIXI

5DEMA : 1126.61
9DEMA : 1120.35
12DEMA: 1116.54
20DEMA: 1102.19
RSI : 68.97
ROC : -0.28

Volumes for the day as share of NSE EQ volume is down by 2.6% and turnover down by 3.6% over previous day. On the other hand on 5day average basis, the volume and turnover shot up by 16.2% and 9.74% respectively.

Watch crude. Negative cues all over.

Cheers

STIXi values for 20-MAY-2008 and market review

For 20-MAY-2008

• Open: 1129.41
• High: 1156.91
• Low : 1105.47
• Close : 1130.29
• Prev. Close: 1132.89

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 13.02%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.71%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.84%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.37%
SENSEX Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.26%

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1120.17
• 9Day EMA 1115.57
• 12Day EMA 1112.37
• 20Day EMA 1098.26
• RSI @ 66.77
• ROC @ -0.82

For the day all indices ended negative, including STIXi. However STIXi's fall was confined to 0.23% over previous day whereas most of the other indices had fallen by close to 1%.

STIXi's share of volume of NSE EQ universe of stocks moved up marginally to 55.73% from 55.11% while the share of turnover shot up sharply to 70.95% from 67.72% the previous day.

Compared to five-day averages, STIXi volume fell by 1.19% while turnover was up by 6.15%.

ROC has again turned negative and Stochastics (5,3) has given a "SELL". With global cues being not so great at the moment, further downward momentum is expected in the near term.

Cheers

STIXi values for 16th May 2008 and market review.

• Open: 1125.7
• High: 1151.69
• Low : 1107.39
• Close : 1132.89
• Prev. Close: 1119.22

Returns since 01-APR-2008

STIXi : 13.28%
Nifty : 8.82%
CNX 500 : 9.97%
CNX 100 : 9.55%
SENSEX : 11.57%

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1115.11
• 9Day EMA 1111.88
• 12Day EMA 1109.11
• 20Day EMA 1094.89
• RSI @ 68.04
• ROC @ 0.58

On a day when the broader market was up significantly, STIXi's share of volume of NSE EQ universe of stocks has gone down marginally by about 1.85% over the previous day while that of turnover went down by 3.56%.

STIXi volume moved up by about 3.5% and while the turnover was static as compared to previous 5 day averages.

ROC has moved into positive territory.

As indicated in the previous post, the market ended positive for the day. Chart patterns since 2nd week of Apr 2008, look like a Bullish flag formation. If so, then in STIXi, the volume breakout trigger appears to have taken place 15th May itself. On the frontline indices, the trigger appears to have taken place today (16th). If indeed it is a bullish flag formation, with the height of the flagpole being about 280-300 points, we might be looking at Nifty levels around 5450 shortly.

Cheers

STIXi values for 15-MAY-2008 and market review

STIXi values for 15-MAY-2008

• Open: 1109.2
• High: 1137.93
• Low : 1090.02
• Close : 1119.22
• Prev. Close: 1100.47

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 11.92%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.93%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.95%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.60%
SENSEX Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 11.05%

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1106.23
• 9Day EMA 1106.63
• 12Day EMA 1104.78
• 20Day EMA 1090.89
• RSI @ 64.77
• ROC @ -0.49

STIXi's share of volume of NSE EQ universe of stocks has gone up sharply by about 2.5% over the previous day while that of turnover is up by 3.25% and they are at their peak today at 56.96% and 71.28% respectively.

STIXi volume and turnover for the day are more sharply up by 3.5% and 13% respectively over previous 5 day averages.

ROC though is still in negative-to-neutral territory.

The previously indicated probable Head-and-Shoulder pattern on most indices over the past three weeks stands negated with this sharp break-out accompanied by jump in STIXi volumes. Short term trend is up for the broader market, with NIFTY likely to aim for 61.8% retracement of its recent fall - though action may be restricted to front-line or quality stocks, unless fundamental cues such as Inflation Number (due out today) and Crude prices etc spring a surprise.

Cheers

STIXi values for 14-MAY-2008 and market review

STIXi values for 14-MAY-2008

• Open: 1084.1
• High: 1121.56
• Low : 1065.11
• Close : 1100.47
• Prev. Close: 1086.37

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.04%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.74%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.91%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.44%
SENSEX Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.65%

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1099.73
• 9Day EMA 1103.49
• 12Day EMA 1102.19
• 20Day EMA 1087.91
• RSI @ 59.49
• ROC @ -0.84

STIXi's share of volume of NSE EQ universe of stocks has gone up by about 1% over the previous day while that of turnover is up by 1.2%. However the broad market upmove has happened with sharply lesser volumes & turnover today. Further STIXi volume and turnover for the day are down 4.04% and 3.08% respectively over previous 5 day averages.

ROC has started turning up again, though still near neutral to negative territory. Stochastics (5,3) and (14,3) still indicating a BUY. STIXi has closed over its 5 day EMA and in the process seems to have reversed from its 20DEMA.

Lack of volumes on a good upmove day makes this move unconvincing.

Cheers

STIXi - values for 13-MAY-2008 and market review

STIXi values for 13-MAY-2008

• Open: 1101.08
• High: 1126.8
• Low : 1071.3
• Close : 1086.37
• Prev. Close: 1089.73

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.63%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 4.6%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.87%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.31%
SENSEX Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.21%

For the day, it was a broad-based fall, with only the Midcap centric indices registering gains. Relatively, STIXi has withstood the fall better.

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1099.36
• 9Day EMA 1104.24
• 12Day EMA 1102.47
• 20Day EMA 1086.59
• RSI @ 54.75
• ROC @ -1.64

STIXi's share of volume of NSE EQ universe of stocks has gone up sharply by 3.6% over the previous day while that of turnover is up by 1%. The broad market fall has happened with large volumes today. STIXi volume and turnover for the day are very sharply up 16.48% and 8.17% respectively over previous 5 day averages, indicating profit booking and anticipation of further fall by seasoned hands.

STIXi has closed just below its 20Day EMA for the first time.

ROC has resumed the falling trend. Yesterday's BUY trigger in Stochastics (5,3) is followed up by today's BUY trigger in Stochastics (14,3). However there are no confirmations from other indicators.

The market (indices) appear to have formed a Head-and-Shoulder pattern over the past 3 weeks. This fall, accompanied by a very large jump in volumes indicates that market is likely to head down further. NIFTY may be headed towards 4780 - 4820 levels.

Cheers

STIXi values for 12-May-2008 and market review

STIXi values for 12-MAY-2008

• Open: 1081.57
• High: 1110.17
• Low : 1045.95
• Close : 1089.73
• Prev. Close: 1091.48

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.97%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.72%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.52%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.29%
SENSEX Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.90%

For the day, while the large-cap centric indices advanced, rest were either flat or negative, with the BSE SMALLCAP index falling much sharply. STIXi closed marginally down (-0.16%), though the opening was very weak.

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1105.85
• 9Day EMA 1108.71
• 12Day EMA 1105.39
• 20Day EMA 1086.61
• RSI @ 56.21
• ROC @ -0.33

STIXi's share of volume of NSE EQ universe of stocks has gone down by 1.4% over the previous day while that of turnover is up by 1%. The STIXi volume and turnover for the day are up 1.2% and down 4.8% respectively over previous 5 day averages.

ROC is trying to reverse the falling trend and is presently (near) neutral. Stochastics (5,3) has given a 'BUY' indication. However there are no confirmations from other indicators.

Market may be in a consolidatory mood or may stage a minor pullback for the day. Broad market trend remains negative.

Cheers

Relative performance of STIXi v/s other indices - review

STIXi seems to be holding upto its promise. As evidenced in this chart, it appears pretty balanced and has outperformed most other indices since its inception. And it seems capable of holding the down-side better. It is early days...got to wait and see for few more months and volatile periods in market to evaluate it better.

Cheers

STIXi values for 09MAY2008 and market review

STIXi values for 09-MAY-2008

• Open: 1111.81
• High: 1135.88
• Low : 1076.17
• Close : 1091.48
• Prev. Close: 1119.36

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.14%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.13%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.46%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.75%
SENSEX Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.11%

For the day, all front-line indices corrected sharply and the recently overheated indices such as Nifty Junior, CNXMidcap50 falling more than the other indices.

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1113.91
• 9Day EMA 1113.45
• 12Day EMA 1108.24
• 20Day EMA 1086.28
• RSI @ 56.94
• ROC @ -1.05

Today's sharp fall has been accompanied by a 3.75% volume increase on STIXi with turnover down by 2.52%. However, STIXi's share of volume and turnover of NSE EQ universe of stocks have both gone up by nearly 2% over the previous day and stand at 51.33% and 64.59% respectively.

ROC has crossed over to the negative zone. Broader market still indicating a SELL.

Caution adviced in near term.

Cheers

STIXi values for 8th May 2008

STIXi values for 08-MAY-2008

• Open: 1117.57
• High: 1140.78
• Low : 1093.95
• Close : 1119.36
• Prev. Close: 1126.46

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 11.93%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.22%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.77%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.08%
SENSEX Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.30%

For the day Nifty Junior index further corrected down sharply. STIXi appears to be outperforming the more popular indices both on the way up as well as down.

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1125.12
• 9Day EMA 1118.94
• 12Day EMA 1111.29
• 20Day EMA 1085.73
• RSI @ 70.50
• ROC @ 1.68

As anticipated, the corection continued across the market with the advance-decline ratio of NSE EQ universe really sounding. However today's sharper fall has happened with lower volume and lower turnover - both on NSE EQ universe as well as STIXi.

STIXi has closed very close to 9day EMA. Further downside appears possible in the broader market, with STIXi moving towards 1082-1085 levels.

Cheers

STIXi values for 07MAY2008 and market wrap

STIXi values for 06-MAY-2008

• Open: 1129.19
• High: 1154.62
• Low : 1103.79
• Close : 1126.46
• Prev. Close: 1128.2

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 12.64%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.35%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.98%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.40%
SENSEX Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.96%
For the day Nifty Junior index corrected down the most.

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1128.01
• 9Day EMA 1118.84
• 12Day EMA 1109.82
• 20Day EMA 1082.20
• RSI @ 74.70
• ROC @ 2.81

STIXi scrips volume share of NIFTY EQ universe has sharply moved up over previous day by over 10%, alongwith nearly 8% increase in turnover.

While the corection continues, the chart patterns indicate a formation of a rounded top in progress. For two days in a row STIXi has closed below short term moving averages. But it is unclear whether the Sensex holding above near-term support level of around 17200-250 is a false-promise of some up-move still pending or a lull before a sharp down move.

What is clear is that the broad market, specifically those outside the key indices seem to have topped for the time being. A down-move towards 20day averages is the preferred view for the broader market / STIXi.

Cheers

STIXi values for 6th May 2008 and market wrap

STIXi values for 06-MAY-2008

• Open: 1142.99
• High: 1166.94
• Low : 1108.67
• Close : 1128.2
• Prev. Close: 1142.7

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 12.82%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.55%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.48%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.73%
SENSEX Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 11.18%

While returns from NIFTY Junior and NIFTY Midcap50 baskets continue be way ahead of rest at nearly 17% & 16% respectively, for the day they also corrected down the most.

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1128.79
• 9Day EMA 1116.93
• 12Day EMA 1106.80
• 20Day EMA 1077.54
• RSI @ 75.73
• ROC @ 5.4

There was a sharp drop in STIXi scrips combined Volumes compared to previous five day averages. STIXi scrips volume share of NIFTY EQ universe has sharply fell over previous day by over 10% whereas the share of turnover has remained static.

With the day's corection, the much anticipated fall in the broader market has materialised. Today's direction will be crucial as it will determine the short-term.

Caution still adviced in the broader market. Market may move towards 20day moving averages.

Cheers

STIXi values for 05-MAY-2008

STIXi values for 05-MAY-2008

• Open: 1144.48
• High: 1173.27
• Low : 1120.13
• Close : 1142.7
• Prev. Close: 1139.61

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 14.27%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.55%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 11.80%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.91%

NIFTY Junior continues to scream ahead, having delivered double the NIFTY returns over same period.

STIXi

• 5 Day EMA 1129.08
• 9 Day EMA 1114.12
• 12Day EMA 1102.90
• 20Day EMA 1072.20
• RSI is @ 84.76

STIXi scrips combined Volumes and turnover were very marginally down compared to previous five day averages. An interesting thing is STIXi scrips volume share of NIFTY EQ universe has sharply fell over previous day by over 10% whereas the share of turnover has slightly gone up.

While STIXi continues to go up, volume has fallen, RSI keeps going up and ROC has been inching down. Further Stochastics (14,3 as well as 5,3) have given SELL triggers. It might be time to take home some money.

Cheers

STIXi values for 02-MAY-2008

STIXi values for 02-MAY-2008

• Open: 1144.89
• High: 1168.85
• Low : 1118.56
• Close : 1139.61
• Prev. Close: 1126.31

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 13.96%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.31%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 12.13%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 11.44%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 12.63%

NIFTY Junior is setting a scorching pace, with that index returning 18.61% since 1st Apr 2008, closely followed by CNX Midcap 50 @ 17.29%.

STIXi
5Day EMA 1122.27
9Day EMA 1106.97
12Day EMA 1095.67
20Day EMA 1064.78
RSI is @ 84.39

STIXi scrips combined volumes and turnover were relatively static compared to previous five day averages, but their share of NIFTY EQ universe has inched up.

STIXi RSI continues to indicate a SELL on the broader market. ROC, now at 9.59 for STIXi has been dipping for the past three days.

Cheers

STIXi - Performance review for the month of APR-08

Know ye all!


STIXi has completed its first month of existence as of 30-APR-2008.

So far, it appears to have held its promise - to indicate broader market movement better than NIFTY or SENSEX. Or even CNX 500. And to be a growth index. During April, the front-line indices have decidedly underperformed the broader market, where quite a large number of scrips had given manifold returns than NIFTY / SENSEX / CNX500 returns.

In sheer percentage terms, the outperformance of STIXi over NIFTY has been a solid 40% and over CNX500, the outperfomance has been an impressive 19%

The chart aside should give you an indication of how over the past 10 - 12 trading sessions, post the NIFTY breakout from its resistance levels, STIXi, the broader market index has sharply outperformed its venerated peers.

Further, based on the RSI that has been persisting around 78-84 levels for the past 6 days for STIXi, I believe the broader market may face tough resistance over the next few trading sessions and if the frontline indices / stocks were to correct, it is likely that the broader market may fall more sharply.

STIXi Volume and Value trends

Since inception, STIXi scrips have contributed an average of 48% in volume terms and 64% in value terms of the NIFTY EQ Universe. These levels have been consistently being maintained by the 150 stock STIXi right through APR-08, as can be seen in this chart. As indicated in the overview of STIXi index, the index continues to live upto its key objective of being more broad-based than frontline indices.

Index constituents of STIXi
Two changes were effected on STIXi during APR-08, as routine maintenance of the index.

1. STIXi has been suitably adjusted for corporate action (bonus issue) on one of its constituents CONCOR EQ.
2. Due to the restructuring, on its ex-date SUNDRAM CLAYTON went out of STIXi and on next trading date was replaced with SHANTI GEARS.

Cheers

PS: Post edited on 7th May 2008 to rectify wrong mention of bonus adjustment of GAIL instead of CONCOR.

STIXi values for 30-APR-2008 and Market Review

STIXi values for 30-APR-2008

• Open: 1128.19
• High: 1158.87
• Low : 1104.44
• Close : 1126.31
• Prev. Close: 1124.78

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 12.63%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.00%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.6%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.97%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 11.21%

• STIXi
  - 5Day EMA 1107.24
• - 9Day EMA 1091.94
• - 12Day EMA 1087.68
• - 20Day EMA 1056.91
• - RSI is @ 82.72

STIXi scrips combined Volumes was static compared to previous five day average volume while turnover has risen by 7.6%.

While upward move may continue on the frontline index stocks, caution is advised in near term, as STIXi RSI continues to indicate a SELL on the broader market.

Cheers

PS:
The RSI of past 5 days stands corrected as follows:
23-Apr : 83.70
24-Apr : 77.96
25-Apr : 79.68
28-Apr : 80.47
29-Apr : 82.53
Copy-paste can be harmful. Sadly, Microsoft thinks otherwise :-)

STIXi values for 29-APR-2008

STIXi values for 29-APR-2008

- Open: 1111.43
- High: 1145.05
- Low : 1094.86
- Close : 1124.78
- Prev. Close: 1109.74

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 12.47%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.62%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.89%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.53%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 11.21%

STIXi
- 5Day EMA 1107.24
- 9Day EMA 1091.94
- RSI is @ 91.06

STIXi scrips combined Volumes has gone up sharply by 15% for the day over previous five day average volume while turnover has risen much sharply by 26%. STIXi volume and turnover rise was at much higher rate over previous day's figures, as compared to respective figures of NIFTY EQ universe.

STIXi RSI continues to be at alarming levels. Caution advised in near term.

Cheers

STIXi values for 28-APR-2008 and Market Analysis

STIXi values for 28-APR-2008

• Open: 1108.31
• High: 1138.67
• Low : 1084.44
• Close : 1109.74
• Prev. Close: 1104.43

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.97%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.39%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.89%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.28%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.89%


STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1098.47
• 9Day EMA 1083.73
• RSI is @ 91.31

STIXi scrips combined Volumes has gone down for the day by nearly 20% over previous five day average volume while turnover has fallen by 9%. STIXi continues to go up with falling volumes and RSI is at alarming levels. Broader market likely to correct in near term.

Cheers

STIXi values for 25-APR-2008 & market analysis

STIXi values for 25-APR-2008

• Open: 1101.8
• High: 1127.99
• Low : 1076.43
• Close : 1104.43
• Prev. Close: 1093.33

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.4386%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.8520%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.0401%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.6260%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.5949%

STIXi

• 5 Day EMA 1092.84
• 9 Day EMA 1077.22
• RSI is @ 79.72

STIXi scrips combined Volumes has gone down for the day by about 14% over previous five day average volume day while turnover has fallen by 2.3%. STIXI, since 23-APR-2008 has been making lower highs and lower tops. Further, considering STIXi has gone up with falling volumes, RSI continuing to hover near 80 levels and that 5 Day EMA is catching up, it might be worthwhile to be cautious on the broader market, as profit booking appear to be taking place.

Action may be more focussed on front-line index stock basket for the very near term / in the coming week, as is evident from this chart showing the relative performance of STIXi v/s NIFTY v/s CNX500 since 01-APR-2008. A correction from NIFTY around 5180 levels is not ruled out.

Cheers

STIXi values for 24-APR-2008

STIXi values for 24-APR-2008

• Open: 1114.67
• High: 1135.04
• Low : 1077.00
• Close : 1093.33
• Prev. Close: 1103.01

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.3286%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.4921%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.9719%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.3684%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.0038%

Nifty Junior (11.93%), Nifty Midcap (9.72%), Nifty Midcap 50 (11.09%) indices have consistently outperformed STIXi over this period.

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1087.05
• 9Day EMA 1070.42
• RSI is @ 77.90

STIXi scrips combined volume has gone down for the day by about 12% over previous day but turnover has increased by 6% for the day.

Cheers

STIXi - values for 23-APR-2008 and Market analysis

STIXi values for 23-APR-2008

• Open: 1107.74
• High: 1135.16
• Low : 1081.06
• Close : 1103.01
• Prev. Close: 1100.9

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.2966%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.9763%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.5391%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.8865%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.8564%

Nifty Junior (12.67%), Nifty Midcap (10.61%), Nifty Midcap 50 (13.24%) indices have consistently outperformed STIXi over this period.

• STIXi 5Day EMA 1083.91
• 9Day EMA 1064.69
• RSI is @ 83.84

STIXi scrips combined Volumes has marginally inched up with relatively static levels in turnover.

The anticipated minor correction seems to have got triggered today, qualifying more as a running corection. NIFTY is dangerously close to 200Day EMA (@ 5017) support. With the broader market STIXi RSI continuing to inch up, further broad based correction may set in any time. Whether the fibanocci retracement upto 5184 is scaled by NIFTY in the current upmove holds the key to short-to-medium term trend of the market.

By the time this post appears, markets must have opened, possibly with a gap-up. Expect a volatile day today (24-APR-2008)

Cheers

STIXi values for 22-APR-2008 and market analysis

STIXi values for 22-APR-2008

• Open: 1092.48
• High: 1127.96
• Low : 1067.17
• Close : 1100.9
• Prev. Close: 1095.68

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.0856%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.5354%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.9477%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.4796%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.4056%

Nifty Junior (13.47%), Nifty Midcap (10.6%), Nifty Midcap 50 (12.47%) indices have consistently outperformed STIXi over this period.

• 5Day EMA 1074.35
• 9Day EMA 1055.11
• RSI is @ 83.45

STIXi scrips combined volumes have again picked up @ 20% more than average volume of last three 3 days (in value terms by about 15% over yesterday).
The market appears to have definitely shifted focus to outside Nifty/Sensex universe of stocks. With STIXi RSI at levels of 83.45 a minor correction may be on the cards but upward action may continue in small and midcaps.
Sample this:
During 01-APR-2008 to 22-APR-2008,

• Large cap components of STIXi have returned approx 6.5%
• Mid cap components of STIXi have returned approx 10.9%
• Small cap components of STIXi have returned approx 17%

Cheers

SAIL - more steam left...?

This is a further follow-up to a post I had sent to a forum (called smellthecheese) where I am a member...unfortunately, the forum administrator has been pre-occupied with business travel and as such the follow-up post did not reach the members of the forum...

The targets for SAIL upto 182.4 - they have all been achieved. The original call has thus given a 12.31% return over 5 trading sessions. Caution adviced if long on SAIL. Move towards 197-198 range would be possible if broader market upmove continues.

======== The follow-up mail on SAIL sent to Smellthecheese sent on 20th April 2008
Hello,
THis is a follow-up to my earlier post on SAIL.
The current upmove appears likely to continue for fewmore sessions, as indicated in the attachment.
For those holding positions, recommend moving up thestop loss to 166.10 or 162.45. Minimum target of173.85 still appears valid. If upmove sustains beyond that, may move to 176.80, 182.40.
On a weekly close basis, 38.2% retracement of previous fall gives a target of 197.40. In the process it has to overcome strong resistances in the 182-185 zone,which appears a bit tough under the circumstances. Ride the up move while it lasts, by moving up the stoplosses.
On long term charts, the RSI, WilliamsR andstochostics continue to be in buy zone.
Cheers

=============

MY ORIGINAL ANALYSIS POSTED to SmellTheCheese forum on 11th APRIL2008 under the subject "SAIL appears poised for a small upmove"

=============

> --- S wrote:>

Buy triggers are visible on the 1 year charts.

But considering that 50day EMA (204.50) is appearing to be about to go below 200D EMA (now at 202.70), the medium term trend is still down.

However in the short term, a break-out appears imminent bcoz

1) RSI is sub-30 levels, indiciating buy.

2) W%R is in buy zone.

3) Slow & Fast Stoch have given buy signals

4) As the attached chart shows, a downward sloping triangle indicates the downmove may be over, for the moment

ROC still appears to indicate further bearish times On this basis, one can go long on SAIL, if there is a upward breakout above 162.50 (On close basis), for a target of 173.80 (which is 38.2% retracement of fall from previous high 201.05 on 26-MAR-2008

Resistances at 168-170. Beyond 174, if the upmove sustains one can look at a target of 184 (61.8% retracement of previous fall and also, 20D Moving average is situated there presently). Stop losses would be 157.2, 152 and if you can take a risk, 148.

Cheers and happy trading.

STIXi values for 21-APR-2008 and market review

STIXi values for 21-APR-2008
Open: 1082.87
High: 1121.91
Low : 1061.63
Close : 1095.68
Prev. Close: 1070.4
STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.5636%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.2759%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.3950%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.9350%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.1206%
Nifty Junior (11.12%), Nifty Midcap (10.16%), Nifty Midcap 50 (11.59%) indices have consistently outperformed STIXi over this period.
STIXi 5Day EMA is @ 1061.08 & 9Day EMA is @ 1043.67 as of 21-APR-2008
Volumes of 21-APR-2008 were less than that of last three 3 days by about 10% (in value terms by about 18%) but index seems to have gone up sharply over this 3-4 days on this falling volumes...
Care warranted in the current move.
Cheers

STIXi - So far, so good...

You will be glad to know that STIXi is now all of 3 weeks old. And it is living upto its promise - by being a growth index, in performing better than NIFTY / SENSEX or highly inclusive index such as CNX500 during an upmove in the broader market.

This chart shows the relative performance of STIXi v/s NIFTY v/s CNX500 during the period 01-APR-2008 to 17-APR-2008.

Let us see how STIXi holds up during a down move in the market and whether it lives upto the other objective of indicating in advance a broader market decline.

Let me know what you think...

Cheers

STIXi values for 17-APR-2008

STIXi values for 17-APR-2008
Open: 1067.43
High: 1095.7
Low : 1044.77
Close : 1070.4
Prev. Close: 1048.83
STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.0357%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 4.6175%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.5128%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.1580%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.4687%
Nifty Junior (8.60%), Nifty Midcap (7.79%), Nifty Midcap 50 (8.58%) indices have consistently outperformed STIXi over this period.
STIXi 5Day EMA is @ 1043.78 & 9Day EMA is @ 1030.67 as of 17-APR-2008
Cheers

STIXi values for 16-APR-2008

STIXi values for 16-APR-2008
Open: 1054.35
High: 1082.77
Low : 1029.41
Close : 1048.83
Prev. Close: 1039.92
STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 4.8788%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 3.1174%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 3.7276%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 3.4625%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 3.9520%
Nifty Junior (5.66%), Nifty Midcap (5.67%), Nifty Midcap 50 (5.53%) indices have outperformed STIXi over this period.
STIXi 5Day EMA is @ 1030.47 & 9Day EMA is @ 1020.73 as of 16-APR-2008
Cheers

Sensex Technicals

Per previous post on Sensex near-term target, the minimum retracements on the weekly chart seems to have been completed today.

Now let us see whether the current move takes it beyond 16186. If it does, the next potential targets are 16371, 16555, 16923, 17223 & 17418. The levels around 16400-16600 & 17000 are likely to pose good resistance.

Let us see how for this goes...If you are a trader, trade with caution. Tight stoploss for short positions advised.

Cheers

STIXi values for 15-APR-2008

STIXi values for 15-APR-2008
Open: 1013.61
High: 1056.63
Low : 995.84
Close : 1039.92
Prev. Close: 1020.18

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 3.9878%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 2.9560%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 3.1579%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 3.1638%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 3.3727%

Nifty Junior (4.48%), Nifty Midcap (4.44%), Nifty Midcap 50 (4.49%) indices have outperformed STIXi over this period.

STIXi 5Day EMA is @ 1021.29 & 9Day EMA is @ 1013.71 as of 5-APR-2008
Cheers

STIXi values for 11-APR-2008

STIXi values for 11-APR-2008
Open: 1024.23 High: 1044.22 Low : 1001.29 Close : 1020.18 Prev. Close: 1012.78
STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 2.0139%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 0.8070%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 1.1592%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 1.0506%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 1.1588%

Nifty Junior (2.60%), Nifty Midcap (2.86%), Nifty Midcap 50 (2.71%) indices have outperformed STIXi over this period.

STIXi 5Day EMA is @ 1011.97 & 9Day EMA is @ 1007.16 as of 11-APR-2008

Cheers.

Sensex - very short term target

Sensex appears to have broken out of the trading range of past few days on the upside (15926 as at the time of posting at 1.04PM).

In the process it has gone above the 38.2% retracement of fall from 16371.29 (of 28/MAR/2008) to 15343.12 (4/APR/2008)

If the move sustains intraday and if Sensex goes above 15978.53, one can look at 16028 (20Day EMA), 16187 (38.2% retracement of fall from 18115 to 14994 on weekly close basis) and may be 16923 over the coming 3-5 days.

Cheers

STIXi - values for 10-APR-2008

STIXi values for 10-APR-2008

Open: 1013.51
High: 1041.76
Low : 994.94
Close : 1012.78
Prev. Close: 1013.21

STIX Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 1.2739%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : -0.1382%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 0.3484%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 0.1709%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 0.4382%
Nifty Junior, Nifty Midcap, Nifty Midcap 50 indices have outperformed STIXi over this period.
Cheers.

STIXi - Daily values 01-APR-2008 to 09-APR-2008

Following is the STIXi index open, high, low and close values for the period 01-APR-2008 to 09-APR-2008.



Date, Open, High, Low, Close
01/04/2008, 1011.11, 1035.42, 973.08 ,1000.04
02/04/2008, 1026.85, 1051.36, 994.63 ,1006.83
03/04/2008, 1012.89, 1033.18, 982.95, 1006.11
04/04/2008, 1007.04, 1024.42, 970.03, 985.62
07/04/2008, 992.25, 1026.17, 970.45, 1004.78
08/04/2008, 1003.01, 1029.28, 980.5, 1001.83
09/04/2008, 1000.38, 1032.22, 982.64, 1013.21

----- Index Performance (Returns) during 01-APR-2008 to 09-APR-2008
Nifty returns over the period : 0.1582%
S&P CNX 500 returns over the period : 0.7060%%
STIXi returns over the period : 1.3169%
CNX100 returns over the period : 0.5148%
Nifty Junior, Nifty Midcap 50, CNX Midcap have outperformed STIXi over same period.
Cheers

ERRATA - STIXi - Stox Indicus Index - the basics

When I switched from manual calculation of Index to Bhavcopy based calculation, noticed wrong Close prices had been used for two scrips in the STIXi while deriving the base index.


While fixing the same, to retain the original base index value, I had to change the weight of two other scrips very very marginally. These changes have resulted in the sectoral weights changing in case of 3 sectors slightly as follows:

• Auto sector : Old weight 5.9784% to New Weight 5.9899%
• Banks Sector : Old weight 5.0022% to New Weight 4.9813%
• Metals Sector: Old weight 5.9952% to New Weight 6.0046%

As a consequence, the Weightage by Capitalisation also has undergone minor change as follows:

• Large Caps from 44.3484% to 44.3578%
• Mid Caps from 37.5369% to 37.5257%
• Small Caps from 18.1147% to 18.1164%

No change has been made scrips constituting the index.

Iiconvenience regretted.

Cheers

STIXi - Index values 01-APR-2008 to 08-APR-2008

Date, Open, High, Low, Close

01/04/2008, 1010.99, 1035.31, 972.97, 1000.04

02/04/2008, 1026.73, 1051.24, 994.51, 1006.72

03/04/2008, 1012.77, 1033.06, 982.84, 1006.00

04/04/2008, 1006.93, 1024.31, 969.92, 985.51

07/04/2008, 992.14, 1026.06, 970.35, 1004.68

08/04/2008, 1002.90, 1029.17, 980.39, 1001.72

----- Index Performance during 01-APR-2008 to 08-APR-2008

Nifty returns over the period : -0.6309%

S&P CNX 500 returns over the period : -0.2711%

STIXi returns over the period : 0.1683%

CNX100 returns over the period : -0.4024%

Nifty Junior, Nifty Midcap 50, CNX Midcap have outperformed STIXi over same period.

Cheers

STIXi - StoX Indicus Index - the basics

This STIXi index has been constructed out of a diversified set of 150 stocks (multicap) traded on the NSE at predefined weightage.
The objective was to get at an indicator reflecting broader market movement to serve as a 'growth index covering a larger part of the market' than theLarge-cap only Nifty / Sensex.
And bcoz of the larger basket, the expectation is to have lesser volatility and as the objective has been growth, the rise/fall in this index should be higher / lesser than the front-line indices on up/down days. The stocks included in STIXi have reasonable liquidity. Without going by any technical or functional analysis, stocks were included based on

1. my observations over the past 4-5 years of the market,
2. relative absence of / limited operator activity,
3. givingcoverage to various sub-sectors (For eg., in case of Oil & Gas sector, have included Exploration cos, Refiners, Marketers, Off-shore cos, Pipe cos etc).
4. a handful of momentum stocks / trader favorites have been thrown, just to get a balance.

STIXi summary of the index composition:

No. of Stocks in index : 150

Base price used: Closing Prices of 1-APR-2008. (Historical values will be back-derived and posted later).

Initial Value of Index : 1000.04

Capitalisation Weightage in Index

• Large Cap 44.3484%
• Mid Cap 37.5369%
• Small Cap 18.1147%

Sectoral weightage in index:

• Auto 5.9784%
• Banks 5.0022%
• Cement 5.0004%
• Chemicals/Fertilizers 3.0094%
• Engineering/CG 5.0081%
• Finance/Brokerages 3.9987%
• FMCG/Retail/Consumer 6.9984%
• Infotech 5.9923%
• Infrastructure 6.0006%
• Logistics 2.9974%
• Media 4.9995%
• Metal 5.9952%
• Oil & Gas 4.9988%
• Pharma 5.9963%
• Power 5.9995%
• Realty 3.0063%
• Shipping 5.0012%
• Sugar 4.0095%
• Telecom 5.0057%
• Textiles 1.9989%
• Tourism/Hospitality 3.0032%

Stability:

No changes are proposed to be made atleast for the first 6 months. If required, tweaking may be odone as necessary every three months thereafter.

Hope you find STIXi useful.

Cheers

Stox Indicus Index - Overview of the 'STIXi' Blog

Hello all,

The objective of this blog is

1. to share my views and analysis of Indian Stock Market in general and


2. to disseminate and analyse the performance of my own proprietary index of Indian stocks called 'STIXi' for Stox Indicus indeX - constructed out of a broad and diversified basket of stocks traded on the National Stock Exchange, India, in particular.

From time to time, I will construct and publish model portfolios that could be of use to investors.

If you are interested Indian Stock Market, this is a place you may want to often visit.

Comments & criticisms are welcome.
Cheers