Happy Birthday STIXi

STIXi completed one year of existence on 31-MAR-2009. And what an year it has been for the Indian stock market, as this chart should tell you.

During this one year, STIXi grew pretty well and as months went by, as part of this growing up process :-) two sets of planned changes were made to the composition of the STIXi - apart from routine changes due to corporate actions now and then and in two separate instances 'no-trading' on those scrips.

The first major revision of index composition was on completion of 6 months on 1-OCT-2008 and the index was made more broad based - the number of scrips was increased to 240 (approximately 20% of number of scrips traded on NSE) and on 1/10/8, their cumulative volume share to total volume of NSE scrips was 83% and in turnover terms, their turnover constituted 91% of NSE turnover. This broad-basing also resulted in weights of exisiting constituents of the index undergoing a change.

The second revision was made at end of trading of 31-12-2008 towards rebalancing of weights and effecting few substitutions. After this rebalancing the number of scrips in STIXi still stood at 240, volume & turnover share vis-a-vis NSE shares volume and turnover stood that day on 80.5% and 90.26% respectively. In hind-sight, one significant change made that day as a result of reduction made to weightage of IT sector in STIXi was the replacement of SATYAMCOMP with TECHM. May be saved the day for STIXi falling into an abyss subsequently due to the free fall in Satyam. :-)

The dividend yield of STIXi (when last checked - about 2 months ago) stands at an impressive 2.25%.

Over this one full year, STIXi has been stable, and as promised and expected, truly reflected the broader market movement more accurately than the frontline indices like NIFTY / SENSEX or even CNX500.

The one year technical charts follow in the next post.

Cheers

STIXi, the alternative index for Indian Stock market completes 100 Trading days

Dear readers,

You will be glad to know that STIXi has completed 100 trading days on 25-AUG-2008 since its inception on 01-APR-2008.



As of 25-AUG-2008, over the past 100 trading days, STIXi has returned -8.58% bettered only by SENSEX -7.53%, BSE100 -8.24%, BSE200 -8.44% and NIFTY -8.53%. A commendable performance indeed. For most past, STIXi has been out-performing most if not all indices of the Indian Stock Market.



On quite a few occasions, on the technical front STIXi has given trend-change signals ahead of or in consistent with the front-line indices. STIXi has been clearly without wild swings or bouts of volatility and appears to be balanced, in line with initial expectations. However the Alpha generation that was expected has not happened consistently, especially when the market is on a downward move. May be the composition of STIXi requires a review as well as a relook on weightage is warranted. We shall wait till 6 calendar months and revise the composition as needed.



At the moment, over the past 15 days when the trading volumes have shrunk and the overall market going nowhere, STIXi also has been listless, indicating a narrow trading band for the market that is waiting for some trigger. In my opinion it is likely to remain without huge swings on either side, over the next 9 months at the least, as indicated in the previous post.



Daily data of STIXi for the period 01-APR-2008 to 25-AUG-2008 is available here
If you have a technical analysis software, I would like to request you to upload the data from the above excel file and help me confirm whether the indicators calculated by me are correct.



Daily STIXi technical indicators for the 100 trading days (01-APR-2008 to 25-AUG-2008) using my own Excel based formulas are available here

I would sincerely welcome your comments, feedback and analysis of the performance of STIXi and its soundness of STIXi's construction.

Cheers and safe trading

Market review 27th July 2008 - after a forced break

Well, Blogger's heuristics and/or fuzzy logic thought this blog is a SPAM and the blog got locked out for the past 3 weeks. After two follow-ups, a manual review seems to have been undertaken and the blog has finally been unlocked. Must thank God for small mercies, the Google / Blogger staff for the huge mercy. I sincerely hope the logic would have been fixed by the Blogger team.

Coming to the Indian Stock Market, a lot has happened in the past 3 weeks since the last post, with a strong bullish phase, as indicated in the last phase followed by corrections. STIXi on its part has been performing admirably well. There was a phase during the upmove, STIXi was distinctly underperforming most of the front-line indices. Not any more, as evident in this chart.



On the weekly charts of STIXi, the trend is still positive, with both Stochastics(14,3) as well as Stochastics (5,3) remaining in positive zone.

However on the daily charts, some of the technical indicators are showing or about to show negative bias. The trend for the early part of the week is likely to be negative. Expect a flat-to-positive close for the week. Trend likely to remain range-bound with negative bias for the near to medium term.

Cheers and safe trading

STIXi technicals as of 04-JUL-2008

As of week-ending 04-JUL-2008, the weekly stochastics(5,3) of STIXi has given a Buy though the Moving average crossover has not happened yet on weekly basis. On the daily charts, we of the technical indicators have given a Buy, as evident in the attached chart. Expect the market to open positive and remain in the positive territory for the first 2-3 days of the coming week.

It is likely that we may see bounce-back upto 920.42 (STIXi 20D EMA). The 50% retracement of the fall from recent high of 1017.61 (on 17-JUN-08) to the recent low of 817.32 (made on 01-JUL-2008) will give STIXi an upside target of 917.47.

Cheers and safe trading.

Nifty Daily Technicals - end of 04-JUL-2008

Hello,
On 4th Jul 2008, though the Nifty closed just below its 5Day EMA, as can be seen in the attached chart some of the technical indicators on the daily charts have shown a BUY trigger.
Stochastics (14,3) and Stochastics (5,3) have shown an 'Buy' crossover. 12 Period ROC is showing an uptick, though still within negative territory. MACD is showing a small positive divergence, though still in strongly negative territory and no signal crossover has happened yet. RSI(14) is at 31.94.

So Monday's (7th July) opening is likely to be positive. The 'very' short term trend may remain positive and one may expect the Nifty to target its 20Day EMA, currently at 4288 or 4302. Resistance likely around 4100 & 4158 levels.

Further the downward sloping triangle formation appears to have (nearly) completed with its recent low at 3896.75 on 1/7/08. If true, there is a possibility of Nifty aiming for 4880, with strong resistances at 4572 (50Day EMA)/ 4761 (89D EMA).

Cheers and safe trading

STIXi, (Stox Indicus) Index for the Indian Stock Market completes 3 months

Hello,

I was away travelling, catching up with some long-lost friends, going back in time by some 20-23 years, on a quickly assembled Alumni meet. So, there was a break in publishing my posts.

Anyway, in a market hell-bent on travelling in a single direction, I don't think indices or charts would make much of a difference.

The STIXi values for the period 18-JUN-2008 to 30th June 2008 are available here --> Stox Indicus : STIXi values for 18-JUN-2008 to 30-JUN-2008

While I was away, on 30th June 2008, STIXi has completed 3 months of existence.

Over the past 3 months, STIXi has performed admirably well - Pat on my own back :-) as evident from this chart:

As of date, only SENSEX has managed to beat STIXi - that too very very marginally, and that too only during this current vicious fall.

During yesterday's fall, STIXi broke below its channel formation it had maintained for the past 7 weeks (since 13th May 2008).

Market Review

On 27th Jun 2008, Sensex had closed below its 144 Week EMA, as anticipated in an earlier post. Also, yesterday's Sensex close ended up retracing 38.2% of the upmove from the lows of APRIL-2003 (Yes! whole of 5 years+).

These only indicate worse times to come. The recovery is likely to be a long-drawn out process, going by the new-lows being made everyday. Any recovery is complicated by domestic political scenario, Oil Prices, Inflation, global tensions, FII liquidations etc. Sensex on the downside may find some support at 13220, 12627 or 11553 levels.

However there might be a technical pullback over the short term, because the market is oversold, but other than the 14Day RSI of STIXi (now at 22.56), the short-term buy trigger / trend-reversal are not yet visible on the charts of STIXi or any other front-line indices.

Brave-hearts and believers in long-term story of Indian growth trajectory would do well to start cherry-picking. You may keep the following in mind, when you do start buying:

• Buy a story you are convinced about
• Buy in small lots
• Most importantly do your homework on the scrip before you buy it.
• If your horizon is short term, stay away from the markets for some time.
• AVOID dabbling in penny stocks
• Do not buy on rumors.
• Take a diversified portfolio kind of approach, with some overweight on Pharma & FMCG for the near term.
• Remember to spread your investments over next 9-18 months. No one can catch the bottom-est of bottoms. So averaging over period during a bearish phase would help.
• If you are view is long-term, do not look at your returns on a daily basis.

Cheers

STIXi values for 16-JUN-2008 and 17-JUN-2008

• Date Open High Low Close
• 16/06/2008 1003.54 1031.95 982.68 999.37
• 17/06/2008 1001.23 1031.42 987.5 1017.61

Returns Since 01-APR-2008 (as of 17-JUN-2008)

• STIXi : 1.76%
• Nifty : -1.83%
• SENSEX : 0.45%
• CNX500 : -1.67%
• CNX100 : -1.82%
• Midcap50 : 1.46%
• CNX Midcap : 1.08%
• Nifty Junior : -1.80%

STIXi Technicals as of 17-JUN-2008

• STIXi has closed above 13Day EMA now at 1014.02.
• 20 Day EMA : 1027.98
• 21 Day EMA : 1029.46
• 26 Day EMA : 1035.03
• 34 Day EMA : 1040.16
• 50 Day EMA : 1059.1
• RSI (14) is @ 44.3945
• ROC (12) is @ -2.87479
• Williams%R (14) is @ -54.47

While no bullish moving average cross-over has happened, the stochastics (14,3) as well as (5,3) have not given a SELL yet for the current move.

The upmove has not been accompanied by STIXi volumes & turnover, which have been dipping strongly over the past 4 sessions. Profit booking appears to be taking place across the board, as nearly 50% of NSE EQ volume yesterday was outside of STIXi universe of 150 stocks, which was hovering around 63% till 4 days ago.

Cheers

Sensex Weekly Chart - Week starting 30DEC2002 upto Week ending 13JUN2008

As evident from this chart, the Sensex has closed below the 89Week EMA for the second time in the recent past and the 20W SMA as well as 21W EMA have closed below 34W EMA, which has not happened in the last 6 years or so.

So unless, we break above 15500 mark convincingly and close above 16480, we are headed for really tough times downwards, with an intial stop coming at 13890 levels.

In the first chart above, the 20W SMA when looked at alone is showing ominous signs of a H&S formation that is gathering momentum, with the shoulder-line at around 13700 levels, which is slightly below the current 144W EMA @ 14890. If this H&S comes to fruition, it is going to be blood-bath on the market and time-wise the bearish sentiment may continue for

Caution adviced. Cut your speculative positions. Weed out penny stocks from your portfolio. And take home your profits, if you are sitting on any still.

Cheers

STIXi values for 13-JUN-2008 & for the period (04-JUN-2008 to 12-JUN-2008)

STIXi values for 13-JUN-2008

• Open : 992.54
• High : 1015.65
• Low : 967.47
• Close : 987.55

STIXi Values for the period 04-JUN-2008 to 12-JUN-2008

• Date Open High Low Close
• 04/06/2008 1040.57 1058.51 991.61 1006.22
• 05/06/2008 1006.75 1037.94 976.27 1016.82
• 06/06/2008 1029.49 1047.68 994.2 1007.46
• 09/06/2008 975.94 1005.88 937.49 978.57
• 10/06/2008 974.08 1000.42 940.59 968.39
• 11/06/2008 980.92 1009.44 960.9 985.6
• 12/06/2008 967.98 1004.27 941.74 988.29

Returns since 01-APR-2008

• STIXi : -1.25%
• Nifty : -4.69%
• Sensex : -2.80%
• CNX500 : -4.78%
• CNX100 : -4.90%

STIXi Technicals :

• 5D EMA : 989.83
• 8D EMA : 999.06
• 9D EMA : 1002.53
• 12D EMA : 1012.65
• 13D EMA : 1015.76
• 20D EMA : 1032.19
• 21D EMA : 1033.78
• 26D EMA : 1039.39
• 34D EMA : 1044.08
• 50D EMA : 1063.30
• RSI (14) : 33.79
• ROC (12) : -7.89
• Stoch(14,3) : 28.55, 26.76
• Stoch(5,3) : 64.05, 51.27
• MACD(12,26,9) : -26.74, -17.14, -9.60
• Williams%R (14) : -71.55

Volumes & Turnover

Volume and turnover were down 10% & 12.97% over previous day respectively AND down by 3.24% and 13.64% compared to 5day averages. STIXi's share of NSE EQ universe was also down for the day by about 2.9% and 0.58% and are at 54.69% and 68.51%.

Cheers

STIXi values for 03-JUN-2008 and market review

Open : 1031.6
High : 1058.85
Low : 1001.16
Close : 1037.53

Returns since 01-APR-2008

STIXi : 3.75%
Nifty : -0.50%
Sensex : 2.15%
CNX500 : 0.37%
CNX100 : -0.43%

STIXi Technicals :

5D EMA : 1059.15
8D EMA : 1069.43
9D EMA : 1072.12
12D EMA : 1078.26
20D EMA : 1083.53
21D EMA : 1083.33
26D EMA : 1080.75
34D EMA : 1075.90
RSI (14) : 36.51
ROC (12) : -8.42
Stoch(14,3) : 23.35, 21.07
Stoch(5,3) : 32.39, 31.83
MACD(12,26,9) : -2.48, 9.63, -12.11

Volumes & Turnover

Volume and turnover were up 16.73% & 11.43% over previous day respectively, but still down by about 5% each compared to 5day averages. STIXi's share of NSE EQ universe has gone up for the day by about 1.5% and 1% and are at 56.49% and 68.85%.

It was one of those days when STIXi had fallen more than the other indices. Volume and turnover statistics indicate the bearish action is shifting to front-line / quality stocks.

MACD has crossed the zero-line and gone into the negative zone. Stochastics (14,3) and stoch(5,3) both have given a buy-trigger. However other indicators continuing to show negative bias and with STIXi well below the moving averages, pull-back if any, may be due to petrol-price hikes, is likely to be capped at 1077.70 or at the 20D EMA @ 1083.53.

Cheers

STIXi values for 02-JUN-2008

• Open : 1083.58
• High : 1102.55
• Low : 1033.27
• Close : 1047.73

Returns since 01-APR-2008

• STIXi : 4.77%
• Nifty : 0.00%
• Sensex : 2.79%
• CNX500 : 0.95%
• CNX100 : 0.08%
• NiftyJunior : 0.57%
• NiftyMidcap50 : 6.36%
• CNX Midcap : 3.59%
• BSE500 : 2.83%
• BSE200 : 3.16%
• BSE100 : 3.19%
• BSE Midcap : 2.96%
• BSE Smallcap : 1.24%

STIXi Technicals for 02-JUN-2008

• 5Day EMA : 1069.96
• 9Day EMA : 1080.76
• 12Day EMA : 1085.67
• 20Day EMA : 1088.37
• 21Day EMA : 1087.91
• 26Day EMA : 1084.21
• 34Day EMA : 1078.23
• RSI(14) : 38.84
• ROC(12) : -6.38
• Stochastics (14,3) : %K14 = 11.7 %D3 = 21.16
• Stochastics (5,3) : %K5 = 18.03 %D3 = 29.3
• MACD (12,26,9) : MACD = 1.47 Signal = 12.66 Histogram = -11.19

STIXi volume & turnover for 02-JUN-2008

• Volume for the day : 26 Crore shares (-14.64% over previous day)
• Turnover for the day : 8023.08 Crores (-19.62% over previous day)
• Volume share of NSE EQ universe : 55.01%
• Turnover share of NSE EQ universe : 67.98%
• Day's Volume relative to 5Day SMA : -16.92%
• Day's turnover relative to 5Day SMA : -14.12%

Cheers

STIXi relative performance v/s all other indices since 01-APR-08

One picture is equal to 1000 words...! So they say...

Interesting to note that while all the other indices had made lower highs and lower bottoms during May-08, the broad based STIXi made a double-top! Clear sign of bearish times to come.

Cheers

Sundar

Relative performance of various indices in MAY-08

Returns of indices for the month of MAY-08

• STIXi -4.36%
• NIFTY -5.73%
• Sensex -5.06%
• CNX 500 -6.22%
• CNX 100 -6.39%
• Nifty Junior -10.35%
• CNX Midcap -6.31%
• Nifty Midcap50 -5.38%
• BSE 500 -5.96%
• BSE 200 -5.53%
• BSE 100 -5.51%
• BSE Midcap -5.30%
• BSE Smallcap -7.30%

Cheers

STIXi values of 29-MAY-2008 and 30-MAY-2008

Date Open High Low Close Returns Since 01-APR-2008

• 29-MAY-08 1090.72 1113.45 1054.28 1072.17 7.21%
• 30-MAY-08 1081.75 1107.03 1052.24 1077.2 7.72%

Review for 30-MAY-08

• STIXi fell 0.47% over previous close.
• STIXi volume and turnover constituted 55.16% & 66.88% of NSE EQ Universe for the day.
• STIXi volume was down 1.16% over 5D average.
• STIXi turnover was up 10.5% over 5D average.

STIXi Technicals for 30-MAY-2008

• 5D EMA : 1081.08
• 9D EMA : 1089.02
• 12D EMA : 1092.57
• 20D EMA : 1092.64
• 26D EMA : 1087.12
• RSI (14) : 46.44
• ROC(14) : -2.11

Cheers

STIXi values for 27-05-2008 and 28-05-2008

Date Open High Low Close Returns since 01-APR-2008

27/05/2008 1084.82 1106.01 1052.77 1066.76 6.67%

28/05/2008 1071.06 1100.56 1047.46 1082.22 8.22%

With F&O expiry happening today, and technical cues being mildly positive, for the day expect a NIFTY close at around 5007 where 20 / 21 / 26 / 34 Day EMAs are present or around 5021-5028 where 50 / 55 / 200 EMAs are clustered.

Cheers

STIXi values for 26-MAY-2008

• Open : 1091.87
• High : 1108.5
• Low : 1057.28
• Close: 1075.34

Returns since 01-APR-2008 :

• STIXi : 7.53%
• Nifty : 2.86%
• CNX500: 3.80%
• CNX100: 3.07%
• SENSEX: 4.62%

STIXi RSI is @ 44.63 (dropping below 50 for the first time since mid APR-08) and ROC(14) is @ -3.93. Small uptick seen in %K in Stochastics (5,3).

STIXi decisively closed below 26EMA, which is @ 1091.57.

iiiii volumes are abysmally low and fell sharply by over 20% over 5day average. But its share of NSE EQ Universe of stocks remains nearly static, both in terms of volume as well as turnover.
Cheers

STIXi values for 22-05-2008 & 23-05-2008

Date Open High Low Close ReturnsSince01-APR-2008
22/05/2008 1131.41 1152.99 1103.71 1123.04 12.30%
23/i05/2008 1127.05 1147.07 1092.75 1103.95 10.39%

Markets extremely weak with latest close below 20Day EMA. RSI @ 53.57 and ROC @ -2.0

Cheers

STIXi values for 21-MAY-2008

Open : 1119.2
High : 1156.33
Low : 1102.22
Close: 1139.5
Prev.Close : 1130.29

Returns since 01-APR-2008

STIXi : 13.95%
NIFTY : 7.98%
CNX500: 9.36%
CNX100: 8.62%
SENSEX: 10.34%

STIXI

5DEMA : 1126.61
9DEMA : 1120.35
12DEMA: 1116.54
20DEMA: 1102.19
RSI : 68.97
ROC : -0.28

Volumes for the day as share of NSE EQ volume is down by 2.6% and turnover down by 3.6% over previous day. On the other hand on 5day average basis, the volume and turnover shot up by 16.2% and 9.74% respectively.

Watch crude. Negative cues all over.

Cheers

STIXi values for 20-MAY-2008 and market review

For 20-MAY-2008

• Open: 1129.41
• High: 1156.91
• Low : 1105.47
• Close : 1130.29
• Prev. Close: 1132.89

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 13.02%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.71%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.84%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.37%
SENSEX Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.26%

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1120.17
• 9Day EMA 1115.57
• 12Day EMA 1112.37
• 20Day EMA 1098.26
• RSI @ 66.77
• ROC @ -0.82

For the day all indices ended negative, including STIXi. However STIXi's fall was confined to 0.23% over previous day whereas most of the other indices had fallen by close to 1%.

STIXi's share of volume of NSE EQ universe of stocks moved up marginally to 55.73% from 55.11% while the share of turnover shot up sharply to 70.95% from 67.72% the previous day.

Compared to five-day averages, STIXi volume fell by 1.19% while turnover was up by 6.15%.

ROC has again turned negative and Stochastics (5,3) has given a "SELL". With global cues being not so great at the moment, further downward momentum is expected in the near term.

Cheers

STIXi values for 16th May 2008 and market review.

• Open: 1125.7
• High: 1151.69
• Low : 1107.39
• Close : 1132.89
• Prev. Close: 1119.22

Returns since 01-APR-2008

STIXi : 13.28%
Nifty : 8.82%
CNX 500 : 9.97%
CNX 100 : 9.55%
SENSEX : 11.57%

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1115.11
• 9Day EMA 1111.88
• 12Day EMA 1109.11
• 20Day EMA 1094.89
• RSI @ 68.04
• ROC @ 0.58

On a day when the broader market was up significantly, STIXi's share of volume of NSE EQ universe of stocks has gone down marginally by about 1.85% over the previous day while that of turnover went down by 3.56%.

STIXi volume moved up by about 3.5% and while the turnover was static as compared to previous 5 day averages.

ROC has moved into positive territory.

As indicated in the previous post, the market ended positive for the day. Chart patterns since 2nd week of Apr 2008, look like a Bullish flag formation. If so, then in STIXi, the volume breakout trigger appears to have taken place 15th May itself. On the frontline indices, the trigger appears to have taken place today (16th). If indeed it is a bullish flag formation, with the height of the flagpole being about 280-300 points, we might be looking at Nifty levels around 5450 shortly.

Cheers