STIXi, the alternative index for Indian Stock market completes 100 Trading days

Dear readers,

You will be glad to know that STIXi has completed 100 trading days on 25-AUG-2008 since its inception on 01-APR-2008.



As of 25-AUG-2008, over the past 100 trading days, STIXi has returned -8.58% bettered only by SENSEX -7.53%, BSE100 -8.24%, BSE200 -8.44% and NIFTY -8.53%. A commendable performance indeed. For most past, STIXi has been out-performing most if not all indices of the Indian Stock Market.



On quite a few occasions, on the technical front STIXi has given trend-change signals ahead of or in consistent with the front-line indices. STIXi has been clearly without wild swings or bouts of volatility and appears to be balanced, in line with initial expectations. However the Alpha generation that was expected has not happened consistently, especially when the market is on a downward move. May be the composition of STIXi requires a review as well as a relook on weightage is warranted. We shall wait till 6 calendar months and revise the composition as needed.



At the moment, over the past 15 days when the trading volumes have shrunk and the overall market going nowhere, STIXi also has been listless, indicating a narrow trading band for the market that is waiting for some trigger. In my opinion it is likely to remain without huge swings on either side, over the next 9 months at the least, as indicated in the previous post.



Daily data of STIXi for the period 01-APR-2008 to 25-AUG-2008 is available here
If you have a technical analysis software, I would like to request you to upload the data from the above excel file and help me confirm whether the indicators calculated by me are correct.



Daily STIXi technical indicators for the 100 trading days (01-APR-2008 to 25-AUG-2008) using my own Excel based formulas are available here

I would sincerely welcome your comments, feedback and analysis of the performance of STIXi and its soundness of STIXi's construction.

Cheers and safe trading

Market review 27th July 2008 - after a forced break

Well, Blogger's heuristics and/or fuzzy logic thought this blog is a SPAM and the blog got locked out for the past 3 weeks. After two follow-ups, a manual review seems to have been undertaken and the blog has finally been unlocked. Must thank God for small mercies, the Google / Blogger staff for the huge mercy. I sincerely hope the logic would have been fixed by the Blogger team.

Coming to the Indian Stock Market, a lot has happened in the past 3 weeks since the last post, with a strong bullish phase, as indicated in the last phase followed by corrections. STIXi on its part has been performing admirably well. There was a phase during the upmove, STIXi was distinctly underperforming most of the front-line indices. Not any more, as evident in this chart.



On the weekly charts of STIXi, the trend is still positive, with both Stochastics(14,3) as well as Stochastics (5,3) remaining in positive zone.

However on the daily charts, some of the technical indicators are showing or about to show negative bias. The trend for the early part of the week is likely to be negative. Expect a flat-to-positive close for the week. Trend likely to remain range-bound with negative bias for the near to medium term.

Cheers and safe trading

STIXi technicals as of 04-JUL-2008

As of week-ending 04-JUL-2008, the weekly stochastics(5,3) of STIXi has given a Buy though the Moving average crossover has not happened yet on weekly basis. On the daily charts, we of the technical indicators have given a Buy, as evident in the attached chart. Expect the market to open positive and remain in the positive territory for the first 2-3 days of the coming week.

It is likely that we may see bounce-back upto 920.42 (STIXi 20D EMA). The 50% retracement of the fall from recent high of 1017.61 (on 17-JUN-08) to the recent low of 817.32 (made on 01-JUL-2008) will give STIXi an upside target of 917.47.

Cheers and safe trading.

Nifty Daily Technicals - end of 04-JUL-2008

Hello,
On 4th Jul 2008, though the Nifty closed just below its 5Day EMA, as can be seen in the attached chart some of the technical indicators on the daily charts have shown a BUY trigger.
Stochastics (14,3) and Stochastics (5,3) have shown an 'Buy' crossover. 12 Period ROC is showing an uptick, though still within negative territory. MACD is showing a small positive divergence, though still in strongly negative territory and no signal crossover has happened yet. RSI(14) is at 31.94.

So Monday's (7th July) opening is likely to be positive. The 'very' short term trend may remain positive and one may expect the Nifty to target its 20Day EMA, currently at 4288 or 4302. Resistance likely around 4100 & 4158 levels.

Further the downward sloping triangle formation appears to have (nearly) completed with its recent low at 3896.75 on 1/7/08. If true, there is a possibility of Nifty aiming for 4880, with strong resistances at 4572 (50Day EMA)/ 4761 (89D EMA).

Cheers and safe trading

STIXi, (Stox Indicus) Index for the Indian Stock Market completes 3 months

Hello,

I was away travelling, catching up with some long-lost friends, going back in time by some 20-23 years, on a quickly assembled Alumni meet. So, there was a break in publishing my posts.

Anyway, in a market hell-bent on travelling in a single direction, I don't think indices or charts would make much of a difference.

The STIXi values for the period 18-JUN-2008 to 30th June 2008 are available here --> Stox Indicus : STIXi values for 18-JUN-2008 to 30-JUN-2008

While I was away, on 30th June 2008, STIXi has completed 3 months of existence.

Over the past 3 months, STIXi has performed admirably well - Pat on my own back :-) as evident from this chart:

As of date, only SENSEX has managed to beat STIXi - that too very very marginally, and that too only during this current vicious fall.

During yesterday's fall, STIXi broke below its channel formation it had maintained for the past 7 weeks (since 13th May 2008).

Market Review

On 27th Jun 2008, Sensex had closed below its 144 Week EMA, as anticipated in an earlier post. Also, yesterday's Sensex close ended up retracing 38.2% of the upmove from the lows of APRIL-2003 (Yes! whole of 5 years+).

These only indicate worse times to come. The recovery is likely to be a long-drawn out process, going by the new-lows being made everyday. Any recovery is complicated by domestic political scenario, Oil Prices, Inflation, global tensions, FII liquidations etc. Sensex on the downside may find some support at 13220, 12627 or 11553 levels.

However there might be a technical pullback over the short term, because the market is oversold, but other than the 14Day RSI of STIXi (now at 22.56), the short-term buy trigger / trend-reversal are not yet visible on the charts of STIXi or any other front-line indices.

Brave-hearts and believers in long-term story of Indian growth trajectory would do well to start cherry-picking. You may keep the following in mind, when you do start buying:

• Buy a story you are convinced about
• Buy in small lots
• Most importantly do your homework on the scrip before you buy it.
• If your horizon is short term, stay away from the markets for some time.
• AVOID dabbling in penny stocks
• Do not buy on rumors.
• Take a diversified portfolio kind of approach, with some overweight on Pharma & FMCG for the near term.
• Remember to spread your investments over next 9-18 months. No one can catch the bottom-est of bottoms. So averaging over period during a bearish phase would help.
• If you are view is long-term, do not look at your returns on a daily basis.

Cheers

Sensex Weekly Chart - Week starting 30DEC2002 upto Week ending 13JUN2008

As evident from this chart, the Sensex has closed below the 89Week EMA for the second time in the recent past and the 20W SMA as well as 21W EMA have closed below 34W EMA, which has not happened in the last 6 years or so.

So unless, we break above 15500 mark convincingly and close above 16480, we are headed for really tough times downwards, with an intial stop coming at 13890 levels.

In the first chart above, the 20W SMA when looked at alone is showing ominous signs of a H&S formation that is gathering momentum, with the shoulder-line at around 13700 levels, which is slightly below the current 144W EMA @ 14890. If this H&S comes to fruition, it is going to be blood-bath on the market and time-wise the bearish sentiment may continue for

Caution adviced. Cut your speculative positions. Weed out penny stocks from your portfolio. And take home your profits, if you are sitting on any still.

Cheers

STIXi Technicals as of 13JUN2008

STIXi continues to stay below all EMAs



And both Stochastics (14,3) and (5,3) have been indicating 'buy' for past 3 days.
And the 12-Period ROC is showing an uptick but still in negative territory, indicating bearish sentiment, and MACD is showing a divergence on the upside for past few days, but bullish signal line cross-over has not happened yet.

STIXi RSI(14) has made a higher-low and appearing to signal a 'Buy' in the short term while the Williams%R (14) is also indicating a Buy, but has not crossed over mid-mark.

However the mild BUY triggers have not been accompanied by a surge in STIXi volumes, though STIXi's share of volume and turnover in NSE EQ have been consistently moving up indicating action being restricted to select scrips of the entire universe.

While the next 1-2 days may be positive for the market, the medium term trend stays negative.

Cheers

STIXi has completed 50 Trading Days :-)

Know ye all,

As of 13-JUN-2008, STIXi has completed 50 trading days and over this period since 1st April 2008, it has performed exceptionally well in comparison to all the indices (other than Sectoral) in Indian Market - both across NSE as well as BSE, as evident from this chart.

Let us hear it for STIXi.

Cheers

STIXi values for 03-JUN-2008 and market review

Open : 1031.6
High : 1058.85
Low : 1001.16
Close : 1037.53

Returns since 01-APR-2008

STIXi : 3.75%
Nifty : -0.50%
Sensex : 2.15%
CNX500 : 0.37%
CNX100 : -0.43%

STIXi Technicals :

5D EMA : 1059.15
8D EMA : 1069.43
9D EMA : 1072.12
12D EMA : 1078.26
20D EMA : 1083.53
21D EMA : 1083.33
26D EMA : 1080.75
34D EMA : 1075.90
RSI (14) : 36.51
ROC (12) : -8.42
Stoch(14,3) : 23.35, 21.07
Stoch(5,3) : 32.39, 31.83
MACD(12,26,9) : -2.48, 9.63, -12.11

Volumes & Turnover

Volume and turnover were up 16.73% & 11.43% over previous day respectively, but still down by about 5% each compared to 5day averages. STIXi's share of NSE EQ universe has gone up for the day by about 1.5% and 1% and are at 56.49% and 68.85%.

It was one of those days when STIXi had fallen more than the other indices. Volume and turnover statistics indicate the bearish action is shifting to front-line / quality stocks.

MACD has crossed the zero-line and gone into the negative zone. Stochastics (14,3) and stoch(5,3) both have given a buy-trigger. However other indicators continuing to show negative bias and with STIXi well below the moving averages, pull-back if any, may be due to petrol-price hikes, is likely to be capped at 1077.70 or at the 20D EMA @ 1083.53.

Cheers

STIXi values for 02-JUN-2008

• Open : 1083.58
• High : 1102.55
• Low : 1033.27
• Close : 1047.73

Returns since 01-APR-2008

• STIXi : 4.77%
• Nifty : 0.00%
• Sensex : 2.79%
• CNX500 : 0.95%
• CNX100 : 0.08%
• NiftyJunior : 0.57%
• NiftyMidcap50 : 6.36%
• CNX Midcap : 3.59%
• BSE500 : 2.83%
• BSE200 : 3.16%
• BSE100 : 3.19%
• BSE Midcap : 2.96%
• BSE Smallcap : 1.24%

STIXi Technicals for 02-JUN-2008

• 5Day EMA : 1069.96
• 9Day EMA : 1080.76
• 12Day EMA : 1085.67
• 20Day EMA : 1088.37
• 21Day EMA : 1087.91
• 26Day EMA : 1084.21
• 34Day EMA : 1078.23
• RSI(14) : 38.84
• ROC(12) : -6.38
• Stochastics (14,3) : %K14 = 11.7 %D3 = 21.16
• Stochastics (5,3) : %K5 = 18.03 %D3 = 29.3
• MACD (12,26,9) : MACD = 1.47 Signal = 12.66 Histogram = -11.19

STIXi volume & turnover for 02-JUN-2008

• Volume for the day : 26 Crore shares (-14.64% over previous day)
• Turnover for the day : 8023.08 Crores (-19.62% over previous day)
• Volume share of NSE EQ universe : 55.01%
• Turnover share of NSE EQ universe : 67.98%
• Day's Volume relative to 5Day SMA : -16.92%
• Day's turnover relative to 5Day SMA : -14.12%

Cheers

Relative performance of various indices in MAY-08

Returns of indices for the month of MAY-08

• STIXi -4.36%
• NIFTY -5.73%
• Sensex -5.06%
• CNX 500 -6.22%
• CNX 100 -6.39%
• Nifty Junior -10.35%
• CNX Midcap -6.31%
• Nifty Midcap50 -5.38%
• BSE 500 -5.96%
• BSE 200 -5.53%
• BSE 100 -5.51%
• BSE Midcap -5.30%
• BSE Smallcap -7.30%

Cheers

STIXi values of 29-MAY-2008 and 30-MAY-2008

Date Open High Low Close Returns Since 01-APR-2008

• 29-MAY-08 1090.72 1113.45 1054.28 1072.17 7.21%
• 30-MAY-08 1081.75 1107.03 1052.24 1077.2 7.72%

Review for 30-MAY-08

• STIXi fell 0.47% over previous close.
• STIXi volume and turnover constituted 55.16% & 66.88% of NSE EQ Universe for the day.
• STIXi volume was down 1.16% over 5D average.
• STIXi turnover was up 10.5% over 5D average.

STIXi Technicals for 30-MAY-2008

• 5D EMA : 1081.08
• 9D EMA : 1089.02
• 12D EMA : 1092.57
• 20D EMA : 1092.64
• 26D EMA : 1087.12
• RSI (14) : 46.44
• ROC(14) : -2.11

Cheers

STIXi values for 27-05-2008 and 28-05-2008

Date Open High Low Close Returns since 01-APR-2008

27/05/2008 1084.82 1106.01 1052.77 1066.76 6.67%

28/05/2008 1071.06 1100.56 1047.46 1082.22 8.22%

With F&O expiry happening today, and technical cues being mildly positive, for the day expect a NIFTY close at around 5007 where 20 / 21 / 26 / 34 Day EMAs are present or around 5021-5028 where 50 / 55 / 200 EMAs are clustered.

Cheers

STIXi values for 26-MAY-2008

• Open : 1091.87
• High : 1108.5
• Low : 1057.28
• Close: 1075.34

Returns since 01-APR-2008 :

• STIXi : 7.53%
• Nifty : 2.86%
• CNX500: 3.80%
• CNX100: 3.07%
• SENSEX: 4.62%

STIXi RSI is @ 44.63 (dropping below 50 for the first time since mid APR-08) and ROC(14) is @ -3.93. Small uptick seen in %K in Stochastics (5,3).

STIXi decisively closed below 26EMA, which is @ 1091.57.

iiiii volumes are abysmally low and fell sharply by over 20% over 5day average. But its share of NSE EQ Universe of stocks remains nearly static, both in terms of volume as well as turnover.
Cheers

STIXi values for 22-05-2008 & 23-05-2008

Date Open High Low Close ReturnsSince01-APR-2008
22/05/2008 1131.41 1152.99 1103.71 1123.04 12.30%
23/i05/2008 1127.05 1147.07 1092.75 1103.95 10.39%

Markets extremely weak with latest close below 20Day EMA. RSI @ 53.57 and ROC @ -2.0

Cheers

STIXi values for 16th May 2008 and market review.

• Open: 1125.7
• High: 1151.69
• Low : 1107.39
• Close : 1132.89
• Prev. Close: 1119.22

Returns since 01-APR-2008

STIXi : 13.28%
Nifty : 8.82%
CNX 500 : 9.97%
CNX 100 : 9.55%
SENSEX : 11.57%

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1115.11
• 9Day EMA 1111.88
• 12Day EMA 1109.11
• 20Day EMA 1094.89
• RSI @ 68.04
• ROC @ 0.58

On a day when the broader market was up significantly, STIXi's share of volume of NSE EQ universe of stocks has gone down marginally by about 1.85% over the previous day while that of turnover went down by 3.56%.

STIXi volume moved up by about 3.5% and while the turnover was static as compared to previous 5 day averages.

ROC has moved into positive territory.

As indicated in the previous post, the market ended positive for the day. Chart patterns since 2nd week of Apr 2008, look like a Bullish flag formation. If so, then in STIXi, the volume breakout trigger appears to have taken place 15th May itself. On the frontline indices, the trigger appears to have taken place today (16th). If indeed it is a bullish flag formation, with the height of the flagpole being about 280-300 points, we might be looking at Nifty levels around 5450 shortly.

Cheers

STIXi values for 15-MAY-2008 and market review

STIXi values for 15-MAY-2008

• Open: 1109.2
• High: 1137.93
• Low : 1090.02
• Close : 1119.22
• Prev. Close: 1100.47

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 11.92%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.93%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.95%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.60%
SENSEX Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 11.05%

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1106.23
• 9Day EMA 1106.63
• 12Day EMA 1104.78
• 20Day EMA 1090.89
• RSI @ 64.77
• ROC @ -0.49

STIXi's share of volume of NSE EQ universe of stocks has gone up sharply by about 2.5% over the previous day while that of turnover is up by 3.25% and they are at their peak today at 56.96% and 71.28% respectively.

STIXi volume and turnover for the day are more sharply up by 3.5% and 13% respectively over previous 5 day averages.

ROC though is still in negative-to-neutral territory.

The previously indicated probable Head-and-Shoulder pattern on most indices over the past three weeks stands negated with this sharp break-out accompanied by jump in STIXi volumes. Short term trend is up for the broader market, with NIFTY likely to aim for 61.8% retracement of its recent fall - though action may be restricted to front-line or quality stocks, unless fundamental cues such as Inflation Number (due out today) and Crude prices etc spring a surprise.

Cheers

STIXi values for 14-MAY-2008 and market review

STIXi values for 14-MAY-2008

• Open: 1084.1
• High: 1121.56
• Low : 1065.11
• Close : 1100.47
• Prev. Close: 1086.37

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.04%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.74%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.91%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.44%
SENSEX Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.65%

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1099.73
• 9Day EMA 1103.49
• 12Day EMA 1102.19
• 20Day EMA 1087.91
• RSI @ 59.49
• ROC @ -0.84

STIXi's share of volume of NSE EQ universe of stocks has gone up by about 1% over the previous day while that of turnover is up by 1.2%. However the broad market upmove has happened with sharply lesser volumes & turnover today. Further STIXi volume and turnover for the day are down 4.04% and 3.08% respectively over previous 5 day averages.

ROC has started turning up again, though still near neutral to negative territory. Stochastics (5,3) and (14,3) still indicating a BUY. STIXi has closed over its 5 day EMA and in the process seems to have reversed from its 20DEMA.

Lack of volumes on a good upmove day makes this move unconvincing.

Cheers

STIXi - values for 13-MAY-2008 and market review

STIXi values for 13-MAY-2008

• Open: 1101.08
• High: 1126.8
• Low : 1071.3
• Close : 1086.37
• Prev. Close: 1089.73

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.63%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 4.6%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.87%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.31%
SENSEX Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.21%

For the day, it was a broad-based fall, with only the Midcap centric indices registering gains. Relatively, STIXi has withstood the fall better.

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1099.36
• 9Day EMA 1104.24
• 12Day EMA 1102.47
• 20Day EMA 1086.59
• RSI @ 54.75
• ROC @ -1.64

STIXi's share of volume of NSE EQ universe of stocks has gone up sharply by 3.6% over the previous day while that of turnover is up by 1%. The broad market fall has happened with large volumes today. STIXi volume and turnover for the day are very sharply up 16.48% and 8.17% respectively over previous 5 day averages, indicating profit booking and anticipation of further fall by seasoned hands.

STIXi has closed just below its 20Day EMA for the first time.

ROC has resumed the falling trend. Yesterday's BUY trigger in Stochastics (5,3) is followed up by today's BUY trigger in Stochastics (14,3). However there are no confirmations from other indicators.

The market (indices) appear to have formed a Head-and-Shoulder pattern over the past 3 weeks. This fall, accompanied by a very large jump in volumes indicates that market is likely to head down further. NIFTY may be headed towards 4780 - 4820 levels.

Cheers

STIXi values for 12-May-2008 and market review

STIXi values for 12-MAY-2008

• Open: 1081.57
• High: 1110.17
• Low : 1045.95
• Close : 1089.73
• Prev. Close: 1091.48

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.97%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.72%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.52%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.29%
SENSEX Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.90%

For the day, while the large-cap centric indices advanced, rest were either flat or negative, with the BSE SMALLCAP index falling much sharply. STIXi closed marginally down (-0.16%), though the opening was very weak.

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1105.85
• 9Day EMA 1108.71
• 12Day EMA 1105.39
• 20Day EMA 1086.61
• RSI @ 56.21
• ROC @ -0.33

STIXi's share of volume of NSE EQ universe of stocks has gone down by 1.4% over the previous day while that of turnover is up by 1%. The STIXi volume and turnover for the day are up 1.2% and down 4.8% respectively over previous 5 day averages.

ROC is trying to reverse the falling trend and is presently (near) neutral. Stochastics (5,3) has given a 'BUY' indication. However there are no confirmations from other indicators.

Market may be in a consolidatory mood or may stage a minor pullback for the day. Broad market trend remains negative.

Cheers