Happy Birthday STIXi

STIXi completed one year of existence on 31-MAR-2009. And what an year it has been for the Indian stock market, as this chart should tell you.

During this one year, STIXi grew pretty well and as months went by, as part of this growing up process :-) two sets of planned changes were made to the composition of the STIXi - apart from routine changes due to corporate actions now and then and in two separate instances 'no-trading' on those scrips.

The first major revision of index composition was on completion of 6 months on 1-OCT-2008 and the index was made more broad based - the number of scrips was increased to 240 (approximately 20% of number of scrips traded on NSE) and on 1/10/8, their cumulative volume share to total volume of NSE scrips was 83% and in turnover terms, their turnover constituted 91% of NSE turnover. This broad-basing also resulted in weights of exisiting constituents of the index undergoing a change.

The second revision was made at end of trading of 31-12-2008 towards rebalancing of weights and effecting few substitutions. After this rebalancing the number of scrips in STIXi still stood at 240, volume & turnover share vis-a-vis NSE shares volume and turnover stood that day on 80.5% and 90.26% respectively. In hind-sight, one significant change made that day as a result of reduction made to weightage of IT sector in STIXi was the replacement of SATYAMCOMP with TECHM. May be saved the day for STIXi falling into an abyss subsequently due to the free fall in Satyam. :-)

The dividend yield of STIXi (when last checked - about 2 months ago) stands at an impressive 2.25%.

Over this one full year, STIXi has been stable, and as promised and expected, truly reflected the broader market movement more accurately than the frontline indices like NIFTY / SENSEX or even CNX500.

The one year technical charts follow in the next post.

Cheers

STIXi values for 03-JUN-2008 and market review

Open : 1031.6
High : 1058.85
Low : 1001.16
Close : 1037.53

Returns since 01-APR-2008

STIXi : 3.75%
Nifty : -0.50%
Sensex : 2.15%
CNX500 : 0.37%
CNX100 : -0.43%

STIXi Technicals :

5D EMA : 1059.15
8D EMA : 1069.43
9D EMA : 1072.12
12D EMA : 1078.26
20D EMA : 1083.53
21D EMA : 1083.33
26D EMA : 1080.75
34D EMA : 1075.90
RSI (14) : 36.51
ROC (12) : -8.42
Stoch(14,3) : 23.35, 21.07
Stoch(5,3) : 32.39, 31.83
MACD(12,26,9) : -2.48, 9.63, -12.11

Volumes & Turnover

Volume and turnover were up 16.73% & 11.43% over previous day respectively, but still down by about 5% each compared to 5day averages. STIXi's share of NSE EQ universe has gone up for the day by about 1.5% and 1% and are at 56.49% and 68.85%.

It was one of those days when STIXi had fallen more than the other indices. Volume and turnover statistics indicate the bearish action is shifting to front-line / quality stocks.

MACD has crossed the zero-line and gone into the negative zone. Stochastics (14,3) and stoch(5,3) both have given a buy-trigger. However other indicators continuing to show negative bias and with STIXi well below the moving averages, pull-back if any, may be due to petrol-price hikes, is likely to be capped at 1077.70 or at the 20D EMA @ 1083.53.

Cheers

STIXi values for 02-JUN-2008

• Open : 1083.58
• High : 1102.55
• Low : 1033.27
• Close : 1047.73

Returns since 01-APR-2008

• STIXi : 4.77%
• Nifty : 0.00%
• Sensex : 2.79%
• CNX500 : 0.95%
• CNX100 : 0.08%
• NiftyJunior : 0.57%
• NiftyMidcap50 : 6.36%
• CNX Midcap : 3.59%
• BSE500 : 2.83%
• BSE200 : 3.16%
• BSE100 : 3.19%
• BSE Midcap : 2.96%
• BSE Smallcap : 1.24%

STIXi Technicals for 02-JUN-2008

• 5Day EMA : 1069.96
• 9Day EMA : 1080.76
• 12Day EMA : 1085.67
• 20Day EMA : 1088.37
• 21Day EMA : 1087.91
• 26Day EMA : 1084.21
• 34Day EMA : 1078.23
• RSI(14) : 38.84
• ROC(12) : -6.38
• Stochastics (14,3) : %K14 = 11.7 %D3 = 21.16
• Stochastics (5,3) : %K5 = 18.03 %D3 = 29.3
• MACD (12,26,9) : MACD = 1.47 Signal = 12.66 Histogram = -11.19

STIXi volume & turnover for 02-JUN-2008

• Volume for the day : 26 Crore shares (-14.64% over previous day)
• Turnover for the day : 8023.08 Crores (-19.62% over previous day)
• Volume share of NSE EQ universe : 55.01%
• Turnover share of NSE EQ universe : 67.98%
• Day's Volume relative to 5Day SMA : -16.92%
• Day's turnover relative to 5Day SMA : -14.12%

Cheers

STIXi relative performance v/s all other indices since 01-APR-08

One picture is equal to 1000 words...! So they say...

Interesting to note that while all the other indices had made lower highs and lower bottoms during May-08, the broad based STIXi made a double-top! Clear sign of bearish times to come.

Cheers

Sundar

Relative performance of various indices in MAY-08

Returns of indices for the month of MAY-08

• STIXi -4.36%
• NIFTY -5.73%
• Sensex -5.06%
• CNX 500 -6.22%
• CNX 100 -6.39%
• Nifty Junior -10.35%
• CNX Midcap -6.31%
• Nifty Midcap50 -5.38%
• BSE 500 -5.96%
• BSE 200 -5.53%
• BSE 100 -5.51%
• BSE Midcap -5.30%
• BSE Smallcap -7.30%

Cheers

STIXi values for 16th May 2008 and market review.

• Open: 1125.7
• High: 1151.69
• Low : 1107.39
• Close : 1132.89
• Prev. Close: 1119.22

Returns since 01-APR-2008

STIXi : 13.28%
Nifty : 8.82%
CNX 500 : 9.97%
CNX 100 : 9.55%
SENSEX : 11.57%

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1115.11
• 9Day EMA 1111.88
• 12Day EMA 1109.11
• 20Day EMA 1094.89
• RSI @ 68.04
• ROC @ 0.58

On a day when the broader market was up significantly, STIXi's share of volume of NSE EQ universe of stocks has gone down marginally by about 1.85% over the previous day while that of turnover went down by 3.56%.

STIXi volume moved up by about 3.5% and while the turnover was static as compared to previous 5 day averages.

ROC has moved into positive territory.

As indicated in the previous post, the market ended positive for the day. Chart patterns since 2nd week of Apr 2008, look like a Bullish flag formation. If so, then in STIXi, the volume breakout trigger appears to have taken place 15th May itself. On the frontline indices, the trigger appears to have taken place today (16th). If indeed it is a bullish flag formation, with the height of the flagpole being about 280-300 points, we might be looking at Nifty levels around 5450 shortly.

Cheers

STIXi values for 15-MAY-2008 and market review

STIXi values for 15-MAY-2008

• Open: 1109.2
• High: 1137.93
• Low : 1090.02
• Close : 1119.22
• Prev. Close: 1100.47

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 11.92%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.93%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.95%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.60%
SENSEX Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 11.05%

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1106.23
• 9Day EMA 1106.63
• 12Day EMA 1104.78
• 20Day EMA 1090.89
• RSI @ 64.77
• ROC @ -0.49

STIXi's share of volume of NSE EQ universe of stocks has gone up sharply by about 2.5% over the previous day while that of turnover is up by 3.25% and they are at their peak today at 56.96% and 71.28% respectively.

STIXi volume and turnover for the day are more sharply up by 3.5% and 13% respectively over previous 5 day averages.

ROC though is still in negative-to-neutral territory.

The previously indicated probable Head-and-Shoulder pattern on most indices over the past three weeks stands negated with this sharp break-out accompanied by jump in STIXi volumes. Short term trend is up for the broader market, with NIFTY likely to aim for 61.8% retracement of its recent fall - though action may be restricted to front-line or quality stocks, unless fundamental cues such as Inflation Number (due out today) and Crude prices etc spring a surprise.

Cheers

STIXi values for 14-MAY-2008 and market review

STIXi values for 14-MAY-2008

• Open: 1084.1
• High: 1121.56
• Low : 1065.11
• Close : 1100.47
• Prev. Close: 1086.37

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.04%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.74%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.91%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.44%
SENSEX Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.65%

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1099.73
• 9Day EMA 1103.49
• 12Day EMA 1102.19
• 20Day EMA 1087.91
• RSI @ 59.49
• ROC @ -0.84

STIXi's share of volume of NSE EQ universe of stocks has gone up by about 1% over the previous day while that of turnover is up by 1.2%. However the broad market upmove has happened with sharply lesser volumes & turnover today. Further STIXi volume and turnover for the day are down 4.04% and 3.08% respectively over previous 5 day averages.

ROC has started turning up again, though still near neutral to negative territory. Stochastics (5,3) and (14,3) still indicating a BUY. STIXi has closed over its 5 day EMA and in the process seems to have reversed from its 20DEMA.

Lack of volumes on a good upmove day makes this move unconvincing.

Cheers

STIXi - values for 13-MAY-2008 and market review

STIXi values for 13-MAY-2008

• Open: 1101.08
• High: 1126.8
• Low : 1071.3
• Close : 1086.37
• Prev. Close: 1089.73

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.63%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 4.6%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.87%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.31%
SENSEX Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.21%

For the day, it was a broad-based fall, with only the Midcap centric indices registering gains. Relatively, STIXi has withstood the fall better.

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1099.36
• 9Day EMA 1104.24
• 12Day EMA 1102.47
• 20Day EMA 1086.59
• RSI @ 54.75
• ROC @ -1.64

STIXi's share of volume of NSE EQ universe of stocks has gone up sharply by 3.6% over the previous day while that of turnover is up by 1%. The broad market fall has happened with large volumes today. STIXi volume and turnover for the day are very sharply up 16.48% and 8.17% respectively over previous 5 day averages, indicating profit booking and anticipation of further fall by seasoned hands.

STIXi has closed just below its 20Day EMA for the first time.

ROC has resumed the falling trend. Yesterday's BUY trigger in Stochastics (5,3) is followed up by today's BUY trigger in Stochastics (14,3). However there are no confirmations from other indicators.

The market (indices) appear to have formed a Head-and-Shoulder pattern over the past 3 weeks. This fall, accompanied by a very large jump in volumes indicates that market is likely to head down further. NIFTY may be headed towards 4780 - 4820 levels.

Cheers

STIXi values for 12-May-2008 and market review

STIXi values for 12-MAY-2008

• Open: 1081.57
• High: 1110.17
• Low : 1045.95
• Close : 1089.73
• Prev. Close: 1091.48

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.97%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.72%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.52%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.29%
SENSEX Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.90%

For the day, while the large-cap centric indices advanced, rest were either flat or negative, with the BSE SMALLCAP index falling much sharply. STIXi closed marginally down (-0.16%), though the opening was very weak.

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1105.85
• 9Day EMA 1108.71
• 12Day EMA 1105.39
• 20Day EMA 1086.61
• RSI @ 56.21
• ROC @ -0.33

STIXi's share of volume of NSE EQ universe of stocks has gone down by 1.4% over the previous day while that of turnover is up by 1%. The STIXi volume and turnover for the day are up 1.2% and down 4.8% respectively over previous 5 day averages.

ROC is trying to reverse the falling trend and is presently (near) neutral. Stochastics (5,3) has given a 'BUY' indication. However there are no confirmations from other indicators.

Market may be in a consolidatory mood or may stage a minor pullback for the day. Broad market trend remains negative.

Cheers

Relative performance of STIXi v/s other indices - review

STIXi seems to be holding upto its promise. As evidenced in this chart, it appears pretty balanced and has outperformed most other indices since its inception. And it seems capable of holding the down-side better. It is early days...got to wait and see for few more months and volatile periods in market to evaluate it better.

Cheers

STIXi values for 09MAY2008 and market review

STIXi values for 09-MAY-2008

• Open: 1111.81
• High: 1135.88
• Low : 1076.17
• Close : 1091.48
• Prev. Close: 1119.36

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.14%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.13%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.46%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.75%
SENSEX Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.11%

For the day, all front-line indices corrected sharply and the recently overheated indices such as Nifty Junior, CNXMidcap50 falling more than the other indices.

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1113.91
• 9Day EMA 1113.45
• 12Day EMA 1108.24
• 20Day EMA 1086.28
• RSI @ 56.94
• ROC @ -1.05

Today's sharp fall has been accompanied by a 3.75% volume increase on STIXi with turnover down by 2.52%. However, STIXi's share of volume and turnover of NSE EQ universe of stocks have both gone up by nearly 2% over the previous day and stand at 51.33% and 64.59% respectively.

ROC has crossed over to the negative zone. Broader market still indicating a SELL.

Caution adviced in near term.

Cheers

STIXi values for 8th May 2008

STIXi values for 08-MAY-2008

• Open: 1117.57
• High: 1140.78
• Low : 1093.95
• Close : 1119.36
• Prev. Close: 1126.46

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 11.93%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.22%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.77%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.08%
SENSEX Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.30%

For the day Nifty Junior index further corrected down sharply. STIXi appears to be outperforming the more popular indices both on the way up as well as down.

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1125.12
• 9Day EMA 1118.94
• 12Day EMA 1111.29
• 20Day EMA 1085.73
• RSI @ 70.50
• ROC @ 1.68

As anticipated, the corection continued across the market with the advance-decline ratio of NSE EQ universe really sounding. However today's sharper fall has happened with lower volume and lower turnover - both on NSE EQ universe as well as STIXi.

STIXi has closed very close to 9day EMA. Further downside appears possible in the broader market, with STIXi moving towards 1082-1085 levels.

Cheers

STIXi values for 07MAY2008 and market wrap

STIXi values for 06-MAY-2008

• Open: 1129.19
• High: 1154.62
• Low : 1103.79
• Close : 1126.46
• Prev. Close: 1128.2

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 12.64%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.35%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.98%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.40%
SENSEX Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.96%
For the day Nifty Junior index corrected down the most.

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1128.01
• 9Day EMA 1118.84
• 12Day EMA 1109.82
• 20Day EMA 1082.20
• RSI @ 74.70
• ROC @ 2.81

STIXi scrips volume share of NIFTY EQ universe has sharply moved up over previous day by over 10%, alongwith nearly 8% increase in turnover.

While the corection continues, the chart patterns indicate a formation of a rounded top in progress. For two days in a row STIXi has closed below short term moving averages. But it is unclear whether the Sensex holding above near-term support level of around 17200-250 is a false-promise of some up-move still pending or a lull before a sharp down move.

What is clear is that the broad market, specifically those outside the key indices seem to have topped for the time being. A down-move towards 20day averages is the preferred view for the broader market / STIXi.

Cheers

STIXi values for 02-MAY-2008

STIXi values for 02-MAY-2008

• Open: 1144.89
• High: 1168.85
• Low : 1118.56
• Close : 1139.61
• Prev. Close: 1126.31

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 13.96%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.31%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 12.13%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 11.44%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 12.63%

NIFTY Junior is setting a scorching pace, with that index returning 18.61% since 1st Apr 2008, closely followed by CNX Midcap 50 @ 17.29%.

STIXi
5Day EMA 1122.27
9Day EMA 1106.97
12Day EMA 1095.67
20Day EMA 1064.78
RSI is @ 84.39

STIXi scrips combined volumes and turnover were relatively static compared to previous five day averages, but their share of NIFTY EQ universe has inched up.

STIXi RSI continues to indicate a SELL on the broader market. ROC, now at 9.59 for STIXi has been dipping for the past three days.

Cheers

STIXi - Performance review for the month of APR-08

Know ye all!


STIXi has completed its first month of existence as of 30-APR-2008.

So far, it appears to have held its promise - to indicate broader market movement better than NIFTY or SENSEX. Or even CNX 500. And to be a growth index. During April, the front-line indices have decidedly underperformed the broader market, where quite a large number of scrips had given manifold returns than NIFTY / SENSEX / CNX500 returns.

In sheer percentage terms, the outperformance of STIXi over NIFTY has been a solid 40% and over CNX500, the outperfomance has been an impressive 19%

The chart aside should give you an indication of how over the past 10 - 12 trading sessions, post the NIFTY breakout from its resistance levels, STIXi, the broader market index has sharply outperformed its venerated peers.

Further, based on the RSI that has been persisting around 78-84 levels for the past 6 days for STIXi, I believe the broader market may face tough resistance over the next few trading sessions and if the frontline indices / stocks were to correct, it is likely that the broader market may fall more sharply.

STIXi Volume and Value trends

Since inception, STIXi scrips have contributed an average of 48% in volume terms and 64% in value terms of the NIFTY EQ Universe. These levels have been consistently being maintained by the 150 stock STIXi right through APR-08, as can be seen in this chart. As indicated in the overview of STIXi index, the index continues to live upto its key objective of being more broad-based than frontline indices.

Index constituents of STIXi
Two changes were effected on STIXi during APR-08, as routine maintenance of the index.

1. STIXi has been suitably adjusted for corporate action (bonus issue) on one of its constituents CONCOR EQ.
2. Due to the restructuring, on its ex-date SUNDRAM CLAYTON went out of STIXi and on next trading date was replaced with SHANTI GEARS.

Cheers

PS: Post edited on 7th May 2008 to rectify wrong mention of bonus adjustment of GAIL instead of CONCOR.

STIXi values for 30-APR-2008 and Market Review

STIXi values for 30-APR-2008

• Open: 1128.19
• High: 1158.87
• Low : 1104.44
• Close : 1126.31
• Prev. Close: 1124.78

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 12.63%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.00%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.6%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.97%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 11.21%

• STIXi
  - 5Day EMA 1107.24
• - 9Day EMA 1091.94
• - 12Day EMA 1087.68
• - 20Day EMA 1056.91
• - RSI is @ 82.72

STIXi scrips combined Volumes was static compared to previous five day average volume while turnover has risen by 7.6%.

While upward move may continue on the frontline index stocks, caution is advised in near term, as STIXi RSI continues to indicate a SELL on the broader market.

Cheers

PS:
The RSI of past 5 days stands corrected as follows:
23-Apr : 83.70
24-Apr : 77.96
25-Apr : 79.68
28-Apr : 80.47
29-Apr : 82.53
Copy-paste can be harmful. Sadly, Microsoft thinks otherwise :-)

STIXi values for 29-APR-2008

STIXi values for 29-APR-2008

- Open: 1111.43
- High: 1145.05
- Low : 1094.86
- Close : 1124.78
- Prev. Close: 1109.74

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 12.47%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.62%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.89%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.53%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 11.21%

STIXi
- 5Day EMA 1107.24
- 9Day EMA 1091.94
- RSI is @ 91.06

STIXi scrips combined Volumes has gone up sharply by 15% for the day over previous five day average volume while turnover has risen much sharply by 26%. STIXi volume and turnover rise was at much higher rate over previous day's figures, as compared to respective figures of NIFTY EQ universe.

STIXi RSI continues to be at alarming levels. Caution advised in near term.

Cheers

STIXi values for 28-APR-2008 and Market Analysis

STIXi values for 28-APR-2008

• Open: 1108.31
• High: 1138.67
• Low : 1084.44
• Close : 1109.74
• Prev. Close: 1104.43

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.97%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.39%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.89%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.28%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.89%


STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1098.47
• 9Day EMA 1083.73
• RSI is @ 91.31

STIXi scrips combined Volumes has gone down for the day by nearly 20% over previous five day average volume while turnover has fallen by 9%. STIXi continues to go up with falling volumes and RSI is at alarming levels. Broader market likely to correct in near term.

Cheers

STIXi values for 25-APR-2008 & market analysis

STIXi values for 25-APR-2008

• Open: 1101.8
• High: 1127.99
• Low : 1076.43
• Close : 1104.43
• Prev. Close: 1093.33

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.4386%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.8520%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.0401%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.6260%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.5949%

STIXi

• 5 Day EMA 1092.84
• 9 Day EMA 1077.22
• RSI is @ 79.72

STIXi scrips combined Volumes has gone down for the day by about 14% over previous five day average volume day while turnover has fallen by 2.3%. STIXI, since 23-APR-2008 has been making lower highs and lower tops. Further, considering STIXi has gone up with falling volumes, RSI continuing to hover near 80 levels and that 5 Day EMA is catching up, it might be worthwhile to be cautious on the broader market, as profit booking appear to be taking place.

Action may be more focussed on front-line index stock basket for the very near term / in the coming week, as is evident from this chart showing the relative performance of STIXi v/s NIFTY v/s CNX500 since 01-APR-2008. A correction from NIFTY around 5180 levels is not ruled out.

Cheers