STIXi values for 29-APR-2008

STIXi values for 29-APR-2008

- Open: 1111.43
- High: 1145.05
- Low : 1094.86
- Close : 1124.78
- Prev. Close: 1109.74

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 12.47%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.62%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.89%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.53%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 11.21%

STIXi
- 5Day EMA 1107.24
- 9Day EMA 1091.94
- RSI is @ 91.06

STIXi scrips combined Volumes has gone up sharply by 15% for the day over previous five day average volume while turnover has risen much sharply by 26%. STIXi volume and turnover rise was at much higher rate over previous day's figures, as compared to respective figures of NIFTY EQ universe.

STIXi RSI continues to be at alarming levels. Caution advised in near term.

Cheers

STIXi values for 28-APR-2008 and Market Analysis

STIXi values for 28-APR-2008

• Open: 1108.31
• High: 1138.67
• Low : 1084.44
• Close : 1109.74
• Prev. Close: 1104.43

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.97%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.39%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.89%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.28%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.89%


STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1098.47
• 9Day EMA 1083.73
• RSI is @ 91.31

STIXi scrips combined Volumes has gone down for the day by nearly 20% over previous five day average volume while turnover has fallen by 9%. STIXi continues to go up with falling volumes and RSI is at alarming levels. Broader market likely to correct in near term.

Cheers

STIXi values for 25-APR-2008 & market analysis

STIXi values for 25-APR-2008

• Open: 1101.8
• High: 1127.99
• Low : 1076.43
• Close : 1104.43
• Prev. Close: 1093.33

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.4386%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.8520%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.0401%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 8.6260%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.5949%

STIXi

• 5 Day EMA 1092.84
• 9 Day EMA 1077.22
• RSI is @ 79.72

STIXi scrips combined Volumes has gone down for the day by about 14% over previous five day average volume day while turnover has fallen by 2.3%. STIXI, since 23-APR-2008 has been making lower highs and lower tops. Further, considering STIXi has gone up with falling volumes, RSI continuing to hover near 80 levels and that 5 Day EMA is catching up, it might be worthwhile to be cautious on the broader market, as profit booking appear to be taking place.

Action may be more focussed on front-line index stock basket for the very near term / in the coming week, as is evident from this chart showing the relative performance of STIXi v/s NIFTY v/s CNX500 since 01-APR-2008. A correction from NIFTY around 5180 levels is not ruled out.

Cheers

STIXi values for 24-APR-2008

STIXi values for 24-APR-2008

• Open: 1114.67
• High: 1135.04
• Low : 1077.00
• Close : 1093.33
• Prev. Close: 1103.01

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.3286%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.4921%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.9719%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.3684%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.0038%

Nifty Junior (11.93%), Nifty Midcap (9.72%), Nifty Midcap 50 (11.09%) indices have consistently outperformed STIXi over this period.

STIXi

• 5Day EMA 1087.05
• 9Day EMA 1070.42
• RSI is @ 77.90

STIXi scrips combined volume has gone down for the day by about 12% over previous day but turnover has increased by 6% for the day.

Cheers

STIXi - values for 23-APR-2008 and Market analysis

STIXi values for 23-APR-2008

• Open: 1107.74
• High: 1135.16
• Low : 1081.06
• Close : 1103.01
• Prev. Close: 1100.9

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.2966%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.9763%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.5391%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.8865%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.8564%

Nifty Junior (12.67%), Nifty Midcap (10.61%), Nifty Midcap 50 (13.24%) indices have consistently outperformed STIXi over this period.

• STIXi 5Day EMA 1083.91
• 9Day EMA 1064.69
• RSI is @ 83.84

STIXi scrips combined Volumes has marginally inched up with relatively static levels in turnover.

The anticipated minor correction seems to have got triggered today, qualifying more as a running corection. NIFTY is dangerously close to 200Day EMA (@ 5017) support. With the broader market STIXi RSI continuing to inch up, further broad based correction may set in any time. Whether the fibanocci retracement upto 5184 is scaled by NIFTY in the current upmove holds the key to short-to-medium term trend of the market.

By the time this post appears, markets must have opened, possibly with a gap-up. Expect a volatile day today (24-APR-2008)

Cheers

STIXi values for 22-APR-2008 and market analysis

STIXi values for 22-APR-2008

• Open: 1092.48
• High: 1127.96
• Low : 1067.17
• Close : 1100.9
• Prev. Close: 1095.68

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 10.0856%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.5354%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.9477%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.4796%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.4056%

Nifty Junior (13.47%), Nifty Midcap (10.6%), Nifty Midcap 50 (12.47%) indices have consistently outperformed STIXi over this period.

• 5Day EMA 1074.35
• 9Day EMA 1055.11
• RSI is @ 83.45

STIXi scrips combined volumes have again picked up @ 20% more than average volume of last three 3 days (in value terms by about 15% over yesterday).
The market appears to have definitely shifted focus to outside Nifty/Sensex universe of stocks. With STIXi RSI at levels of 83.45 a minor correction may be on the cards but upward action may continue in small and midcaps.
Sample this:
During 01-APR-2008 to 22-APR-2008,

• Large cap components of STIXi have returned approx 6.5%
• Mid cap components of STIXi have returned approx 10.9%
• Small cap components of STIXi have returned approx 17%

Cheers

SAIL - more steam left...?

This is a further follow-up to a post I had sent to a forum (called smellthecheese) where I am a member...unfortunately, the forum administrator has been pre-occupied with business travel and as such the follow-up post did not reach the members of the forum...

The targets for SAIL upto 182.4 - they have all been achieved. The original call has thus given a 12.31% return over 5 trading sessions. Caution adviced if long on SAIL. Move towards 197-198 range would be possible if broader market upmove continues.

======== The follow-up mail on SAIL sent to Smellthecheese sent on 20th April 2008
Hello,
THis is a follow-up to my earlier post on SAIL.
The current upmove appears likely to continue for fewmore sessions, as indicated in the attachment.
For those holding positions, recommend moving up thestop loss to 166.10 or 162.45. Minimum target of173.85 still appears valid. If upmove sustains beyond that, may move to 176.80, 182.40.
On a weekly close basis, 38.2% retracement of previous fall gives a target of 197.40. In the process it has to overcome strong resistances in the 182-185 zone,which appears a bit tough under the circumstances. Ride the up move while it lasts, by moving up the stoplosses.
On long term charts, the RSI, WilliamsR andstochostics continue to be in buy zone.
Cheers

=============

MY ORIGINAL ANALYSIS POSTED to SmellTheCheese forum on 11th APRIL2008 under the subject "SAIL appears poised for a small upmove"

=============

> --- S wrote:>

Buy triggers are visible on the 1 year charts.

But considering that 50day EMA (204.50) is appearing to be about to go below 200D EMA (now at 202.70), the medium term trend is still down.

However in the short term, a break-out appears imminent bcoz

1) RSI is sub-30 levels, indiciating buy.

2) W%R is in buy zone.

3) Slow & Fast Stoch have given buy signals

4) As the attached chart shows, a downward sloping triangle indicates the downmove may be over, for the moment

ROC still appears to indicate further bearish times On this basis, one can go long on SAIL, if there is a upward breakout above 162.50 (On close basis), for a target of 173.80 (which is 38.2% retracement of fall from previous high 201.05 on 26-MAR-2008

Resistances at 168-170. Beyond 174, if the upmove sustains one can look at a target of 184 (61.8% retracement of previous fall and also, 20D Moving average is situated there presently). Stop losses would be 157.2, 152 and if you can take a risk, 148.

Cheers and happy trading.

STIXi values for 21-APR-2008 and market review

STIXi values for 21-APR-2008
Open: 1082.87
High: 1121.91
Low : 1061.63
Close : 1095.68
Prev. Close: 1070.4
STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 9.5636%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.2759%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.3950%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 6.9350%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.1206%
Nifty Junior (11.12%), Nifty Midcap (10.16%), Nifty Midcap 50 (11.59%) indices have consistently outperformed STIXi over this period.
STIXi 5Day EMA is @ 1061.08 & 9Day EMA is @ 1043.67 as of 21-APR-2008
Volumes of 21-APR-2008 were less than that of last three 3 days by about 10% (in value terms by about 18%) but index seems to have gone up sharply over this 3-4 days on this falling volumes...
Care warranted in the current move.
Cheers

STIXi - So far, so good...

You will be glad to know that STIXi is now all of 3 weeks old. And it is living upto its promise - by being a growth index, in performing better than NIFTY / SENSEX or highly inclusive index such as CNX500 during an upmove in the broader market.

This chart shows the relative performance of STIXi v/s NIFTY v/s CNX500 during the period 01-APR-2008 to 17-APR-2008.

Let us see how STIXi holds up during a down move in the market and whether it lives upto the other objective of indicating in advance a broader market decline.

Let me know what you think...

Cheers

STIXi values for 17-APR-2008

STIXi values for 17-APR-2008
Open: 1067.43
High: 1095.7
Low : 1044.77
Close : 1070.4
Prev. Close: 1048.83
STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 7.0357%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 4.6175%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.5128%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.1580%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 5.4687%
Nifty Junior (8.60%), Nifty Midcap (7.79%), Nifty Midcap 50 (8.58%) indices have consistently outperformed STIXi over this period.
STIXi 5Day EMA is @ 1043.78 & 9Day EMA is @ 1030.67 as of 17-APR-2008
Cheers

STIXi values for 16-APR-2008

STIXi values for 16-APR-2008
Open: 1054.35
High: 1082.77
Low : 1029.41
Close : 1048.83
Prev. Close: 1039.92
STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 4.8788%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 3.1174%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 3.7276%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 3.4625%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 3.9520%
Nifty Junior (5.66%), Nifty Midcap (5.67%), Nifty Midcap 50 (5.53%) indices have outperformed STIXi over this period.
STIXi 5Day EMA is @ 1030.47 & 9Day EMA is @ 1020.73 as of 16-APR-2008
Cheers

Sensex Technicals

Per previous post on Sensex near-term target, the minimum retracements on the weekly chart seems to have been completed today.

Now let us see whether the current move takes it beyond 16186. If it does, the next potential targets are 16371, 16555, 16923, 17223 & 17418. The levels around 16400-16600 & 17000 are likely to pose good resistance.

Let us see how for this goes...If you are a trader, trade with caution. Tight stoploss for short positions advised.

Cheers

STIXi values for 15-APR-2008

STIXi values for 15-APR-2008
Open: 1013.61
High: 1056.63
Low : 995.84
Close : 1039.92
Prev. Close: 1020.18

STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 3.9878%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 2.9560%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 3.1579%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 3.1638%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 3.3727%

Nifty Junior (4.48%), Nifty Midcap (4.44%), Nifty Midcap 50 (4.49%) indices have outperformed STIXi over this period.

STIXi 5Day EMA is @ 1021.29 & 9Day EMA is @ 1013.71 as of 5-APR-2008
Cheers

STIXi values for 11-APR-2008

STIXi values for 11-APR-2008
Open: 1024.23 High: 1044.22 Low : 1001.29 Close : 1020.18 Prev. Close: 1012.78
STIXi Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 2.0139%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 0.8070%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 1.1592%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 1.0506%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 1.1588%

Nifty Junior (2.60%), Nifty Midcap (2.86%), Nifty Midcap 50 (2.71%) indices have outperformed STIXi over this period.

STIXi 5Day EMA is @ 1011.97 & 9Day EMA is @ 1007.16 as of 11-APR-2008

Cheers.

Sensex - very short term target

Sensex appears to have broken out of the trading range of past few days on the upside (15926 as at the time of posting at 1.04PM).

In the process it has gone above the 38.2% retracement of fall from 16371.29 (of 28/MAR/2008) to 15343.12 (4/APR/2008)

If the move sustains intraday and if Sensex goes above 15978.53, one can look at 16028 (20Day EMA), 16187 (38.2% retracement of fall from 18115 to 14994 on weekly close basis) and may be 16923 over the coming 3-5 days.

Cheers

STIXi - values for 10-APR-2008

STIXi values for 10-APR-2008

Open: 1013.51
High: 1041.76
Low : 994.94
Close : 1012.78
Prev. Close: 1013.21

STIX Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 1.2739%
Nifty Returns since 01-APR-2008 : -0.1382%
CNX 500 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 0.3484%
CNX 100 Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 0.1709%
Sensex Returns since 01-APR-2008 : 0.4382%
Nifty Junior, Nifty Midcap, Nifty Midcap 50 indices have outperformed STIXi over this period.
Cheers.

STIXi - Daily values 01-APR-2008 to 09-APR-2008

Following is the STIXi index open, high, low and close values for the period 01-APR-2008 to 09-APR-2008.



Date, Open, High, Low, Close
01/04/2008, 1011.11, 1035.42, 973.08 ,1000.04
02/04/2008, 1026.85, 1051.36, 994.63 ,1006.83
03/04/2008, 1012.89, 1033.18, 982.95, 1006.11
04/04/2008, 1007.04, 1024.42, 970.03, 985.62
07/04/2008, 992.25, 1026.17, 970.45, 1004.78
08/04/2008, 1003.01, 1029.28, 980.5, 1001.83
09/04/2008, 1000.38, 1032.22, 982.64, 1013.21

----- Index Performance (Returns) during 01-APR-2008 to 09-APR-2008
Nifty returns over the period : 0.1582%
S&P CNX 500 returns over the period : 0.7060%%
STIXi returns over the period : 1.3169%
CNX100 returns over the period : 0.5148%
Nifty Junior, Nifty Midcap 50, CNX Midcap have outperformed STIXi over same period.
Cheers

ERRATA - STIXi - Stox Indicus Index - the basics

When I switched from manual calculation of Index to Bhavcopy based calculation, noticed wrong Close prices had been used for two scrips in the STIXi while deriving the base index.


While fixing the same, to retain the original base index value, I had to change the weight of two other scrips very very marginally. These changes have resulted in the sectoral weights changing in case of 3 sectors slightly as follows:

• Auto sector : Old weight 5.9784% to New Weight 5.9899%
• Banks Sector : Old weight 5.0022% to New Weight 4.9813%
• Metals Sector: Old weight 5.9952% to New Weight 6.0046%

As a consequence, the Weightage by Capitalisation also has undergone minor change as follows:

• Large Caps from 44.3484% to 44.3578%
• Mid Caps from 37.5369% to 37.5257%
• Small Caps from 18.1147% to 18.1164%

No change has been made scrips constituting the index.

Iiconvenience regretted.

Cheers

STIXi - Index values 01-APR-2008 to 08-APR-2008

Date, Open, High, Low, Close

01/04/2008, 1010.99, 1035.31, 972.97, 1000.04

02/04/2008, 1026.73, 1051.24, 994.51, 1006.72

03/04/2008, 1012.77, 1033.06, 982.84, 1006.00

04/04/2008, 1006.93, 1024.31, 969.92, 985.51

07/04/2008, 992.14, 1026.06, 970.35, 1004.68

08/04/2008, 1002.90, 1029.17, 980.39, 1001.72

----- Index Performance during 01-APR-2008 to 08-APR-2008

Nifty returns over the period : -0.6309%

S&P CNX 500 returns over the period : -0.2711%

STIXi returns over the period : 0.1683%

CNX100 returns over the period : -0.4024%

Nifty Junior, Nifty Midcap 50, CNX Midcap have outperformed STIXi over same period.

Cheers

STIXi - StoX Indicus Index - the basics

This STIXi index has been constructed out of a diversified set of 150 stocks (multicap) traded on the NSE at predefined weightage.
The objective was to get at an indicator reflecting broader market movement to serve as a 'growth index covering a larger part of the market' than theLarge-cap only Nifty / Sensex.
And bcoz of the larger basket, the expectation is to have lesser volatility and as the objective has been growth, the rise/fall in this index should be higher / lesser than the front-line indices on up/down days. The stocks included in STIXi have reasonable liquidity. Without going by any technical or functional analysis, stocks were included based on

1. my observations over the past 4-5 years of the market,
2. relative absence of / limited operator activity,
3. givingcoverage to various sub-sectors (For eg., in case of Oil & Gas sector, have included Exploration cos, Refiners, Marketers, Off-shore cos, Pipe cos etc).
4. a handful of momentum stocks / trader favorites have been thrown, just to get a balance.

STIXi summary of the index composition:

No. of Stocks in index : 150

Base price used: Closing Prices of 1-APR-2008. (Historical values will be back-derived and posted later).

Initial Value of Index : 1000.04

Capitalisation Weightage in Index

• Large Cap 44.3484%
• Mid Cap 37.5369%
• Small Cap 18.1147%

Sectoral weightage in index:

• Auto 5.9784%
• Banks 5.0022%
• Cement 5.0004%
• Chemicals/Fertilizers 3.0094%
• Engineering/CG 5.0081%
• Finance/Brokerages 3.9987%
• FMCG/Retail/Consumer 6.9984%
• Infotech 5.9923%
• Infrastructure 6.0006%
• Logistics 2.9974%
• Media 4.9995%
• Metal 5.9952%
• Oil & Gas 4.9988%
• Pharma 5.9963%
• Power 5.9995%
• Realty 3.0063%
• Shipping 5.0012%
• Sugar 4.0095%
• Telecom 5.0057%
• Textiles 1.9989%
• Tourism/Hospitality 3.0032%

Stability:

No changes are proposed to be made atleast for the first 6 months. If required, tweaking may be odone as necessary every three months thereafter.

Hope you find STIXi useful.

Cheers

Stox Indicus Index - Overview of the 'STIXi' Blog

Hello all,

The objective of this blog is

1. to share my views and analysis of Indian Stock Market in general and


2. to disseminate and analyse the performance of my own proprietary index of Indian stocks called 'STIXi' for Stox Indicus indeX - constructed out of a broad and diversified basket of stocks traded on the National Stock Exchange, India, in particular.

From time to time, I will construct and publish model portfolios that could be of use to investors.

If you are interested Indian Stock Market, this is a place you may want to often visit.

Comments & criticisms are welcome.
Cheers