A quick post - STIXi targets post election results

STIXi is 270 trading days old and has been tracking the broader market wonderfully through upmoves and downmoves.





Currently poised at 675.98 (having started of with 1000 on 1st April 2008), as the election results are a strong sentimental positive for the Indian markets, I expect the STIXi to open today much above its 200Day EMA (687.93) and reach 712.22-716.34 levels (50% retracement of fall from Aug08 high on weekly / daily basis) by end-of-day.



The upmove in the near-term may be capped at 769.69, which is the 61.8% retracement on the weekly charts of STIXi for the fall from closing high of 955.55 achieved in the week ending 8th Aug 2008 to the closing low of 468.68 achived in week ending 6th March 2009.





More later.

Cheers and Safe Trading

Happy Birthday STIXi

STIXi completed one year of existence on 31-MAR-2009. And what an year it has been for the Indian stock market, as this chart should tell you.

During this one year, STIXi grew pretty well and as months went by, as part of this growing up process :-) two sets of planned changes were made to the composition of the STIXi - apart from routine changes due to corporate actions now and then and in two separate instances 'no-trading' on those scrips.

The first major revision of index composition was on completion of 6 months on 1-OCT-2008 and the index was made more broad based - the number of scrips was increased to 240 (approximately 20% of number of scrips traded on NSE) and on 1/10/8, their cumulative volume share to total volume of NSE scrips was 83% and in turnover terms, their turnover constituted 91% of NSE turnover. This broad-basing also resulted in weights of exisiting constituents of the index undergoing a change.

The second revision was made at end of trading of 31-12-2008 towards rebalancing of weights and effecting few substitutions. After this rebalancing the number of scrips in STIXi still stood at 240, volume & turnover share vis-a-vis NSE shares volume and turnover stood that day on 80.5% and 90.26% respectively. In hind-sight, one significant change made that day as a result of reduction made to weightage of IT sector in STIXi was the replacement of SATYAMCOMP with TECHM. May be saved the day for STIXi falling into an abyss subsequently due to the free fall in Satyam. :-)

The dividend yield of STIXi (when last checked - about 2 months ago) stands at an impressive 2.25%.

Over this one full year, STIXi has been stable, and as promised and expected, truly reflected the broader market movement more accurately than the frontline indices like NIFTY / SENSEX or even CNX500.

The one year technical charts follow in the next post.

Cheers

STIXi, the alternative index for Indian Stock market completes 100 Trading days

Dear readers,

You will be glad to know that STIXi has completed 100 trading days on 25-AUG-2008 since its inception on 01-APR-2008.



As of 25-AUG-2008, over the past 100 trading days, STIXi has returned -8.58% bettered only by SENSEX -7.53%, BSE100 -8.24%, BSE200 -8.44% and NIFTY -8.53%. A commendable performance indeed. For most past, STIXi has been out-performing most if not all indices of the Indian Stock Market.



On quite a few occasions, on the technical front STIXi has given trend-change signals ahead of or in consistent with the front-line indices. STIXi has been clearly without wild swings or bouts of volatility and appears to be balanced, in line with initial expectations. However the Alpha generation that was expected has not happened consistently, especially when the market is on a downward move. May be the composition of STIXi requires a review as well as a relook on weightage is warranted. We shall wait till 6 calendar months and revise the composition as needed.



At the moment, over the past 15 days when the trading volumes have shrunk and the overall market going nowhere, STIXi also has been listless, indicating a narrow trading band for the market that is waiting for some trigger. In my opinion it is likely to remain without huge swings on either side, over the next 9 months at the least, as indicated in the previous post.



Daily data of STIXi for the period 01-APR-2008 to 25-AUG-2008 is available here
If you have a technical analysis software, I would like to request you to upload the data from the above excel file and help me confirm whether the indicators calculated by me are correct.



Daily STIXi technical indicators for the 100 trading days (01-APR-2008 to 25-AUG-2008) using my own Excel based formulas are available here

I would sincerely welcome your comments, feedback and analysis of the performance of STIXi and its soundness of STIXi's construction.

Cheers and safe trading

Market review 27th July 2008 - after a forced break

Well, Blogger's heuristics and/or fuzzy logic thought this blog is a SPAM and the blog got locked out for the past 3 weeks. After two follow-ups, a manual review seems to have been undertaken and the blog has finally been unlocked. Must thank God for small mercies, the Google / Blogger staff for the huge mercy. I sincerely hope the logic would have been fixed by the Blogger team.

Coming to the Indian Stock Market, a lot has happened in the past 3 weeks since the last post, with a strong bullish phase, as indicated in the last phase followed by corrections. STIXi on its part has been performing admirably well. There was a phase during the upmove, STIXi was distinctly underperforming most of the front-line indices. Not any more, as evident in this chart.



On the weekly charts of STIXi, the trend is still positive, with both Stochastics(14,3) as well as Stochastics (5,3) remaining in positive zone.

However on the daily charts, some of the technical indicators are showing or about to show negative bias. The trend for the early part of the week is likely to be negative. Expect a flat-to-positive close for the week. Trend likely to remain range-bound with negative bias for the near to medium term.

Cheers and safe trading

STIXi technicals as of 04-JUL-2008

As of week-ending 04-JUL-2008, the weekly stochastics(5,3) of STIXi has given a Buy though the Moving average crossover has not happened yet on weekly basis. On the daily charts, we of the technical indicators have given a Buy, as evident in the attached chart. Expect the market to open positive and remain in the positive territory for the first 2-3 days of the coming week.

It is likely that we may see bounce-back upto 920.42 (STIXi 20D EMA). The 50% retracement of the fall from recent high of 1017.61 (on 17-JUN-08) to the recent low of 817.32 (made on 01-JUL-2008) will give STIXi an upside target of 917.47.

Cheers and safe trading.

Nifty Daily Technicals - end of 04-JUL-2008

Hello,
On 4th Jul 2008, though the Nifty closed just below its 5Day EMA, as can be seen in the attached chart some of the technical indicators on the daily charts have shown a BUY trigger.
Stochastics (14,3) and Stochastics (5,3) have shown an 'Buy' crossover. 12 Period ROC is showing an uptick, though still within negative territory. MACD is showing a small positive divergence, though still in strongly negative territory and no signal crossover has happened yet. RSI(14) is at 31.94.

So Monday's (7th July) opening is likely to be positive. The 'very' short term trend may remain positive and one may expect the Nifty to target its 20Day EMA, currently at 4288 or 4302. Resistance likely around 4100 & 4158 levels.

Further the downward sloping triangle formation appears to have (nearly) completed with its recent low at 3896.75 on 1/7/08. If true, there is a possibility of Nifty aiming for 4880, with strong resistances at 4572 (50Day EMA)/ 4761 (89D EMA).

Cheers and safe trading

STIXi, (Stox Indicus) Index for the Indian Stock Market completes 3 months

Hello,

I was away travelling, catching up with some long-lost friends, going back in time by some 20-23 years, on a quickly assembled Alumni meet. So, there was a break in publishing my posts.

Anyway, in a market hell-bent on travelling in a single direction, I don't think indices or charts would make much of a difference.

The STIXi values for the period 18-JUN-2008 to 30th June 2008 are available here --> Stox Indicus : STIXi values for 18-JUN-2008 to 30-JUN-2008

While I was away, on 30th June 2008, STIXi has completed 3 months of existence.

Over the past 3 months, STIXi has performed admirably well - Pat on my own back :-) as evident from this chart:

As of date, only SENSEX has managed to beat STIXi - that too very very marginally, and that too only during this current vicious fall.

During yesterday's fall, STIXi broke below its channel formation it had maintained for the past 7 weeks (since 13th May 2008).

Market Review

On 27th Jun 2008, Sensex had closed below its 144 Week EMA, as anticipated in an earlier post. Also, yesterday's Sensex close ended up retracing 38.2% of the upmove from the lows of APRIL-2003 (Yes! whole of 5 years+).

These only indicate worse times to come. The recovery is likely to be a long-drawn out process, going by the new-lows being made everyday. Any recovery is complicated by domestic political scenario, Oil Prices, Inflation, global tensions, FII liquidations etc. Sensex on the downside may find some support at 13220, 12627 or 11553 levels.

However there might be a technical pullback over the short term, because the market is oversold, but other than the 14Day RSI of STIXi (now at 22.56), the short-term buy trigger / trend-reversal are not yet visible on the charts of STIXi or any other front-line indices.

Brave-hearts and believers in long-term story of Indian growth trajectory would do well to start cherry-picking. You may keep the following in mind, when you do start buying:

• Buy a story you are convinced about
• Buy in small lots
• Most importantly do your homework on the scrip before you buy it.
• If your horizon is short term, stay away from the markets for some time.
• AVOID dabbling in penny stocks
• Do not buy on rumors.
• Take a diversified portfolio kind of approach, with some overweight on Pharma & FMCG for the near term.
• Remember to spread your investments over next 9-18 months. No one can catch the bottom-est of bottoms. So averaging over period during a bearish phase would help.
• If you are view is long-term, do not look at your returns on a daily basis.

Cheers